Whit's Hits

Years ago, during the era of College Kickoff and the live postgame shows on Sun Sports, I advanced what I called the ‘Big Five Theory.’

The argument was this: based on the level of high school talent in this state, the enrollment of the schools in question, the alumni bases, the financial commitments, and a host of other factors, there would come a day when the University of South Florida and the University of Central Florida would be able to compete with the so-called ‘Big Three’ of Florida, Florida State, and Miami on a regular basis on the football field.  To me, it was inevitable.

I was alternately ridiculed and hailed for this theory; Mike Bianchi still loves to harass me about it, while my friends over at the College Football Resource blog milked it for as much content as I did.

As UCF prepares to play Miami this weekend, I’m struck by how much has changed since I first advanced that Big Five theory.  At one point, my colleague Brady Ackerman declared the Big Five to be dead, “not because of anything UCF or South Florida did, but because Miami and Florida State killed it.”  Brady made that comment right after Miami had been humiliated by Virginia in the Hurricanes’ final game at the Orange Bowl, and Florida State had just lost to Virginia Tech for the first time in the Bobby Bowden era.  It was the apex of a very bad period for Miami and Florida State football, and Brady was right at the time that he said it—November, 2007.

One month later, Miami Northwestern would hammer Orlando Boone 41-0 for the Class 6A state championship at the Citrus Bowl.  It was the final high school game for Jacory Harris, Sean Spence, Marcus Forston, Aldarius Johnson, Ben Jones, Tommy Streeter, and Kendal Thompkins—the so-called “Northwestern Seven” who had all committed to play for Randy Shannon at the University of Miami.

One month after perhaps the most embarassing loss in program history—getting shut out 48-0 in the final game at the Orange Bowl—Miami’s coaching staff could watch on live television as the Northwestern kids celebrated on a field 230 miles to the north.  Rarely can you pinpoint the precise moment and location of a turnaround, but that’s about as close as you can get.  That recruiting class, which included not just the Northwestern players but future stars like Travis Benjamin of Glades Central and Brandon Harris of Miami Washington, would prove to be the tipping point of Miami football under Shannon.

But on that weekend in November of ‘07, the one where Miami lost to UVA and Florida State lost to Virginia Tech, nobody could have predicted that.

It was November 10th, to be exact.  A few hours before the ‘Canes got waxed by Virginia, UCF beat UAB on the road to improve to 7-3 on the year.  The win over the Blazers ended up being game #4 of a seven-game winning streak that included the Conference USA Championship Game—the Knights’ first title in the conference.  That ‘07 season was also the first year of the new on-campus Bright House Networks Stadium at UCF, a building that proved to be a house of horrors for opponents—save for an electrifying 35-32 loss to Texas in the home opener, the Knights didn’t lose on Bright House turf all season.

So.  If you had asked at the end of the 2007 season—heck, if you had asked on the night of November 10th—which program, Miami or UCF, had the higher upside, what would your answer have been?  And with the two schools playing each other this weekend, what’s your answer now?

Funny game, this college football.

While UCF struggles to play its way into a “Big Five,” Florida State seems bent on playing its way out.  Never mind the home loss to South Florida—as I have written in this space before, USF made it a “Big Four” during that same ‘07 season when they went on the road for a night game at Auburn and won.  The Bulls have been as high as 2nd in the BCS, have appeared in four straight bowl games, and now have a win against a Big Three school. 

It’s over.  USF is in.

Don’t believe it?  Florida State’s record since that November 10, 2007 loss to Virginia Tech: 12-10.  A winning team, but barely.  Miami is 11-9 over the same span, but seemingly on the upswing.  UCF is 10-11 since that date, with a 4-8 season last year.

Florida, since 11/10/07: 20 wins, two losses (the Capital One Bowl at the end of the ‘07 season against Michigan, and the Tebow Promise loss to Ole Miss last year).  USF, as of this writing (before their Thursday night tilt with 8th-ranked Cincinnati), has gone 15-6 over the same span.

Big Two?  Big One?  Hard to say these days.

The bigger question—to whom is Saturday’s UCF-Miami game more important, the Knights or the Hurricanes?  UCF needs a signature win against a Big Three opponent in much the same way USF needed its win this year over Florida State—although, as the numbers bear out, South Florida had arguably arrived on the big stage well before that victory in Tallahassee this fall.  Miami, on the other hand, cannot afford a letdown against a Conference USA squad, not after rebuilding the credibility of the program as quickly as they’ve done in the first five games of the season.  Call this one a draw, in terms of who needs it more.

And regardless of outcome, mark the date.

How does Florida State turn it around?  Bobby Bowden’s presence on the sideline may have little to do with it.  Click at left to Read More.