What To Expect

Fresh off yet another home sweep of the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball and a 3.5 game lead in the American League East.

In the words of Ron Burgundy: drink it in.

Anyone who has watched the Rays this season -- and in addition to my professional responsibilities with Sun/FSN, I am also officially on the bandwagon -- cannot be surprised by what happened in St. Petersburg on Wednesday night.

Rallying from a three-run deficit by scoring six times in the 7th inning? Evan Longoria with yet another clutch extra-base hit? BJ Upton ripping out the opposition's heart by making a tough catch look easy in center field? A deep, unheralded bullpen that bends, but doesn't break? Pshaw. They've been doing it all year. At some point, the national media will be compelled to change the focus of its Rays coverage from "curious aberration" to "actual, real-life contending team."

You've noticed, too. TV ratings on both FSN Florida and on the Rays' over-the-air broadcasts have set franchise records this week. On the season, viewership is up 36 percent on FSN Florida this year over last; home attendance is up roughly 6 percent over last year's full-season average, but that number should grow as a long-suffering and oft-disappointed Tampa Bay fan base slowly accepts the truth:

This team is no fluke.

I've covered this already, but it bears repeating: yes, the Rays have talent. Loads of talent, in fact, with the most heavily-stocked minor league system in baseball chomping at the bit behind them. But the difference this season is between the ears.

The Rays expect to win. I refer you, again, to the postgame interview I did with Longoria back in May, wherein I asked him if he could believe that his team was (then) ten games over .500: "You know what? Yeah, we can."

Come back to last night, and Joe Maddon's comments after his club swept the mighty Red Sox in St. Petersburg for the second time this season, to lift themselves to a preposterous 20 games over .500: "I can't tell you that I expected it -- I'd be lying -- but right now ... we do expect to win on a nightly basis."

"Expect" is different from "believe." I may believe that I can shoot 2-under, and I may believe that I can run a half-marathon at a 6:45 pace, but that doesn't mean I can actually DO it. I can, however, expect to shoot in the high 70's once every three or four rounds, and I can expect to finish the half-marathon in something less than two hours.

Why? Because I've done it before, and I've done it often. I know my own limitations, and I know how much I've practiced, trained, or played. Expectations indicate experience. And that's what's different about the Rays this season.

Their memories are blissfully short enough to ignore all those last-place finishes from years gone by, but sharp enough to remember that they've been playing well all season. They've now swept Boston twice. They've swept the Cubs and the Angels. They're 33-13 at home. They have a winning record in every month of this season (first time in franchise history). Their expectations are based on reality, not fantasy.

But the real litmus test, of course, is in my house, where I watched Mrs. Red Sox Nation grind her teeth for each of the last three nights. As soon as the Rays blew up for 6 runs on Wednesday night and took the lead over Boston, I heard this from the living room: "Dammit, they can't beat these guys on the road!"

'They' being her Sox. 'These guys' being the Rays. By the way, she fell asleep before Wednesday night's game was over. Three minutes ago, right after I wrote the above paragraph, she walked into the office, asked me who won the game, and walked out, muttering the exact same thing: "They cannot beat them in St. Pete."

This is going to be one very entertaining summer at my place.

The next step, as several Tampa Bay-area writers pointed out this morning, will be to fend off those members of the baseball establishment who stand, arms crossed, smirking, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Will the Rays collapse? Can they continue this pace? And if they do stumble, and miss the playoffs, will this season be considered a disappointment?

Seriously? For a team that finished in last place in 9 of its first 10 seasons? Are we really asking this question now?

"Expect" vs. "believe." The Rays now have expectations. What a delightful dilemma.