Let The Games Begin

The Orlando Magic are the only team in the NBA that finished the 2008 regular season with more road wins than home wins.

Read that again.

Thirty teams, sixteen of which made the postseason. All eight of the Western Conference's playoff participants won at least 50 games this year. In the East, the top-seeded Boston Celtics went 66-16, their highest win total since the 1985-86 season, when the Bird-Parish-McHale squad won 67 games and finished with the franchise's 16th and last NBA Championship.

But in 2008, nobody -- not the Celtics, not the Pistons, and not one of those 50-win teams in the West -- did what Orlando just did.

That may end up meaning absolutely nothing in the Playoffs, but it bears mentioning. It's also a fine place to start a Magic-Raptors preview.

To add to all the analysis you'll read about this series in the next few days, here are two more points to ponder:

1. Bosh vs. Howard

Both are franchise players. Both are well shy of 25 years old. They're both smart, personable, and perfect ambassadors of their respective teams and the league at large. But they've got their differences.

Bosh is by far the more polished offensive player, with a mid-range game that can occasionally stretch even further -- he was 10 for 25 from three-point range this season, while Howard has only attempted 10 treys in his entire NBA career (almost always under duress). Bosh can also dish it, averaging almost three assists per game, or twice as many as Howard did. On the other hand, Howard is considerably more explosive, having led the league in rebounding at 14.2 per game, which is a full five and a half boards more per night than Bosh. Howard's 2.2 blocks per game doubles Bosh's average. Howard shoots nearly 60% from the field; Bosh shoots 84 percent from the line. Howard's a righty, Bosh a lefty. For every punch, there's a counterpunch.

Consider the three games that Orlando played against Toronto this season: Howard scored 17 points with 9 rebounds in their November meeting, went off for 37 and 15 when they met again in February, and then hung a 19 and 14 on the Raptors in March. Bosh responded thusly: 26 and 10 in the first game, 40 points and 5 boards in the second meeting, missed the third game due to injury.

I hosted that March game in Orlando on Sun Sports, and asked head coach Sam Mitchell about the matchup between Howard and Bosh. He responded, in tones reserved for the very slow, that it was of no interest to him to discuss players who weren't on the floor that night.

Well, coach, you're gonna have to talk about it now.

Let me go on record as saying I don't think Bosh vs. Howard will decide this series. If we've learned anything from their regular season meetings, it's that the two counteract each other. It's worth noting that on the February night when Howard went for 35 and 17 against the Raptors, the Magic lost; back in November, when Bosh recorded his 26 points and 10 rebounds in 38 minutes against Orlando, the Raptors lost -- and Howard scored only 17. Punch, counterpunch.

Instead, what will most likely decide this series is...

2. The Guards

Orlando has been shredded all season by teams with quick point guards who can get into the lane and force defenders to help out. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo struggle with perimeter defense, while Keyon Dooling gives yeoman's effort but is often similarly outquicked. San Antonio, Phoenix, Detroit, Dallas, even Atlanta -- the teams that had Orlando's number this season were teams who broke down the Magic's first line of defense and compelled them to collapse. Once the ball goes up, Orlando isn't dead -- the Magic were the 4th-best team in the league this year in defensive rebounding -- but the opposing team's ability to get by Orlando's guards is a real concern, something that Stan Van Gundy has been harping on all season.

Toronto, of course, offers Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford, two of the best in the business on the bounce. Their ability to create open looks for their teammates, and Orlando's ability to stop that, will be the swing vote in this series.

The X-factor for the Magic, as has been the case all season, is Hedo Turkoglu. Not only has Turk produced a Most Improved Player-worthy season, he's got the playoff experience that most of his teammates lack. For that matter, I would throw Maurice Evans into that mix, as he's been in the postseason both in the NBA and in Europe (something he pointed out to Paul Kennedy on the air after the Magic's win at Atlanta last week).

The Magic should win this series. Note that I write "should." I may as well write "need," seeing as how the team has not advanced past the first round since 1996. If we are to believe that the Orlando Magic are all the way back, that the presence of Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu and Stan Van Gundy has truly, inexorably, honestly vanquished the ghosts of seasons past, they must get past Toronto. After that, it's probably Detroit, and we'll start all over again.

Games 2, 3, and 5 (if necessary) can be seen in HD on Sun Sports. See you on TV.