What If

ESPN.com's Bill Simmons plays the "What If?" game in a recent post, limited to the last couple of seasons in the NBA. I love these scenarios; imagining the what-could-have-been when it comes to trades, free agent signings, and drafts is one of my all-time top five bar conversations.

(On that note, everybody needs one indestructable bar bet, and here's mine: I can name all 50 states in less than sixty seconds. Alphabetically. Never, ever test me on this. I'm digressing.)

Reading the Simmons post the day after I attended an Orlando Magic home game to gather interviews for an upcoming episode of "Inside The Magic" on Sun Sports and FSN Florida, I started thinking about the single greatest "What If?" in Magic team history:

What if Nick Anderson had made his free throws?

A refresher for all you young punks who think that Tracy McGrady was the first star ever to play for Orlando:

Nelison D. "Nick" Anderson was the Magic's first ever collegiate draft pick, entering the NBA in 1989 after his junior season as one of the "clones" at Illinois (Nick, Kendall Gill, Kenny Battle, Steve Bardo, Marcus Liberty. Another great bar bet). He was the first real star player in Orlando, a rebounding two-guard, a player skilled enough to eventually compete in both the Slam Dunk and the Three-Point contests at two separate All-Star Weekends. To this day, Nick Anderson holds a handful of Magic team records, including career scoring, minutes played, field goals attempted and made, three-pointers attempted, defensive rebounds (really), and steals. Nick was a star. The first star the Orlando Magic ever had.

But when the Magic rode the young legs of Shaquille O'Neal and Penny Hardaway to the 1995 NBA Finals against Hakeem's Rockets, Nick became a goat.

History shows that Nick Anderson missed four consecutive free throws at the end of Game One, any one of which could have sealed a win over Houston. Instead, the game went to overtime. An Olajuwon stickback and a Kenny Smith tornado-ball three-pointer later, the Magic were down 0-1, and never recovered. Sweep. One could argue that the franchise still hasn't recovered, but that's another blog entirely.

(Another digression: Nick's steal against Michael Jordan in Game One of the 1995 Eastern Conference semifinals -- perhaps the most significant on-court play in Magic team history -- catapulted the Magic towards the Finals in the first place. If we are to re-live his bad days, let us also re-live one of his best. Amen.)

The purpose of this entry: what if Nick had made his free throws?

I was working as a television producer for the Magic at the time, and during the following summer, we produced an annual season recap video. Bob Hill was an assistant coach under Brian Hill in Orlando, and during his interview for the video, he predicted the following when asked that Magic question:

"If Nick makes those free throws," Bob Hill intoned, "we win Game One, and probably win Game Two. From there, we go to Houston with a 2-0 lead and the whole series has changed."

Then, he curled into the fetal position under his chair and began whimpering softly. No, wait, that was me.

Anyway -- what if Nick makes them?

Let's assume that Bob Hill is right -- the Magic win Game One, and then win Game Two in Orlando. That, alone, probably would have changed the course of franchise history. Two wins or more in the '95 Finals may have convinced Shaq to stay beyond his contract date in the summer of '96. Maybe.

If they actually won the title in '95? I say he stays, no question. He sees the potential to build a dynasty. He adds a few bathrooms to the house in Isleworth. Furthermore, flush with overflowing ticket sales and Lord-knows how many other revenue streams that come with winning a championship, the Magic never think of low-balling O'Neal with their first offer in '96, as they inexplicably chose to do in real life. No, they have a banner in the rafters already -- they show him the money. With a title, Shaq stays, for at least one more big contract.

So then what?

I posit that Shaq becomes a free agent magnet in Orlando. Hell, if McGrady and Grant Hill were willing to sign with the Magic without him, imagine what the market would have been had Shaq stayed. Consider this:

Shaquille O'Neal signed as a free agent with the Lakers in the summer of 1996. Here are some of the other free agents who signed deals prior to the 1996-97 season:

Dikembe Mutombo, Atlanta
Tim Hardaway, Miami
Reggie Miller, Indiana (re-signed)
Michael Jordan, Chicago (his one-year, $30 million contract...okay, so he probably doesn't sign anywhere else, but this IS the guy who seriously considered the Knicks that summer, and later suited up for the Washington Wizards. Maybe Orlando is a serious stretch for MJ in '96, but don't you think that a motivated and ring-wearing Shaq might have been an attraction?)

Alonzo Mourning, John Stockton, and Latrell Sprewell were also among the dozens of players who could have been available in free agency that summer. Remember, that was the year that the NBA eliminated restricted free agency. The summer of '96 was supposed to be a free-for-all. While it didn't turn out that way -- the Jordans, Stocktons, and Millers of the world stayed put, while O'Neal himself was the one big fish who jumped -- the air was right for player movement. At least one of those stars goes to Orlando, probably at a discount, if a ring-wearing Shaq is there in 1996.

And then what?

I submit that the presence of Shaquille and one other "star" would have extended the career of Penny Hardaway, who went downhill in a hurry after O'Neal left. In three seasons next to Shaq, Hardaway missed a total of five games; the very first season after Shaq left, injuries limited Hardaway to 59 games, and he never played a full 82-game schedule in any season after that. The wear and tear, mentally and physically, that came with being the sole option in Orlando broke him down. If Shaq stays, and the Magic get free agent help in that summer of '96, I'm not convinced that happens. At least, not as quickly.

And then -- well, we're off the board. Does Orlando become what we now know as the San Antonio Spurs? Does Brian Hill keep his job a little longer? What about former GM John Gabriel? And here's a big one -- do the Magic get a new arena in Orlando a full ten years earlier than currently planned?

If Shaq stays, does Chuck Daly ever coach here? Doc Rivers? Is there any "Heart & Hustle" roster in Orlando? Does Tracy McGrady ever play for the Magic? What about Grant Hill? Which team would currently be trumpeting Dwight Howard as its franchise player? For whom does Hedo Turkoglu break out this season? If the Magic win a title in 1995, virtually none of their recent history comes to pass. It changes everything.

Understand, I'm not hanging all of this on Nick. Four free throws do not lose a series, regardless of how it was portrayed at the time. It was one game, and plenty of teams have come back from 0-1 in the Finals. For that matter, there's no guarantee that the Magic would have won that '95 championship series even if they did capture Game One. Houston, you may recall, was pretty good.

But What If?