The Price Of Winning

"Was it worth it?"

A longtime Orlando Magic executive asked that question, rhetorically, in a hallway at Amway Arena on Wednesday night. The "it" of which he spoke was the Miami Heat's 2006 NBA Championship. The reason for the rhetorical question, of course, was Shaquille O'Neal's departure to Phoenix.

Was the Heat's title worth Shaq's money? Was it worth the salary cap quagmire that created this year's Miami roster, a group that currently holds the worst record in the Eastern Conference? Interesting question.

We'll get to that in a moment. First, the trade.

I was in Indianapolis for the Magic's road game against the Pacers last weekend when the Shaq rumors first started to simmer. By the time I arrived at Amway Arena on Wednesday for a Magic-Nets tilt, the deal was done. It was all the buzz in the hallways.

Nets coach Lawrence Frank was asked about the Shaq deal off-camera, and he articulated what many have subsequently pointed out -- the Heat just got themselves off the hook. They shed the $40 million that Shaq is owed over the next two seasons, taking back Shawn Marion's $16.4 million this season plus the $3.8 million that Marcus Banks will make this year. Banks is signed for three years beyond 2007-08, peaking at $4.75 million in 2010-11, but if Marion opts out after this year -- which he has the right to do, and which he might be enough of a knucklehead to believe he should do -- Miami could enter the 2008-09 season with a payroll of pebbles and seeds.

Assume that Marion opts out after this season, in search of another max deal somewhere else. That's $17,180,000 gone. Smush Parker has a player option for $2.4 million next year, but the Heat will surely find a way out of that. The Heat hold the option on Alexander Johnson's contract for a relatively miniscule $687,456. If all three of those deals go away, that's $20,267,456 off the cap next season, leaving the payroll at $52.78 million -- a number that would rank as the third-lowest among 30 NBA teams this year.

Even if Marion stays, the 2008-09 number for Miami could be $69.9 million, which is less than 12 teams in the league right now. Of course, that's before the team signs any draft picks -- and with a 9-39 record as of this writing, there's an awfully good chance that Miami will be drafting rather high this summer.

On that note, the only downside for Miami is the possibility that they rally just enough in the second half with Marion and Dwyane Wade to throw themselves into a washing machine for a high lottery pick. Short term, everybody wants to win; long term, the best outcome for the Heat would be to finish the season at their current pace, hope that Marion ventures off into free agency, and enter the 2008-09 season about $15 million under the luxury tax threshold. With that kind of cap flexibility and a high draft pick, the rebuilding around Wade starts immediately.

In summary, Miami gets out from under Shaq's deal, replaces him with a four-time All-Star who can run all night and guard five positions, and places itself in position to retool for the next decade. Off the hook, indeed.

On the other hand, why does Phoenix do this deal?

Say what you will about team chemistry between Marion and Amare Stoudemire, but to me, there's only one answer to that question: Tim Duncan.

The Spurs have knocked Phoenix out of the playoffs in two of the last three years and three of the last six. Shaq is clearly not the player he used to be, but he's also clearly 7-feet and three-plus bills. If Phoenix keeps him healthy and feeds off his unquestioned clubhouse-mediator skills -- remember, the first words out of his mouth when he got to Miami were "This is Dwyane's team," and as the guy who anchored the 2006 Miami Heat NBA Championship Parade on Sun Sports, I can vouch for the effectiveness of that approach -- they could very well ride the Diesel into a series against San Antonio. Once there, the Suns obviously like their chances with O'Neal hammering away at Duncan, as opposed to the jackrabbit style that has won plenty of regular season games but failed to deliver a title.

Further, while there are plenty of guys out there who could make life difficult for Duncan in a playoff series, none have the cache' and marketability of the Big Aristotle. Phoenix, which currently sports the best record in the Western Conference, is only 14th in home attendance this year. If increasing interest + selling more tickets + demonstrating a commitment to winning + doing SOMETHING to counter Duncan = $40 million over the next two seasons, you make the investment. That's how badly the Suns want to clear the hump and get to their first NBA championship. Obviously, they think it's "worth it."

Which brings us back to the original question -- was Shaq "worth it" to Miami? Was the title "worth it?"

I say it was. Shaq made basketball relevant in Miami, which is no small feat, but going a step further, he made Miami relevant in the NBA. He made the Heat legit, in much the same fashion that Kevin Garnett once made the Timberwolves legit and Alonzo Mourning once made the Hornets legit.

[Edit: based on a very astute reader comment below, let me amend this after the fact -- Alonzo Mourning was the first star player who made Miami Heat basketball relevant in the NBA. An omission on my part. There's no Heat, as we know them, without 'Zo. Thanks to the anonymous reader for pointing this out.]

For that matter, O'Neal did for the Heat what he did for the Magic ten years earlier. He put the franchise on the radar for the national media, the fans, and most importantly, other players. He made the Heat a more-than-acceptable option for free agents, the kind of place that a draft pick wouldn't be bummed to join. Of the most recent expansion teams, the Bobcats and the Grizzlies are still looking for that guy, while the Raptors may have found him in Chris Bosh. Maybe.

Of course, the one thing that Shaq delivered to Miami that none of those players ever did for their respective franchises, and the one thing he did for Miami that he couldn't do for Orlando: win a championship. I have written in this space before that "the only thing that never ends is the glow of a championship," and I'm sticking by it. I was a Magic employee when the team reached the 1995 NBA Finals, and if someone had offered us the chance to spend $40 million to ensure that Nick Anderson's free throws went down, well, that probably would have been a short meeting. Perhaps you have to suffer through the wins and losses long enough to get it.

I guess the Suns agree that "the only thing that never ends is the glow of a championship." They're betting $40 million on it. And the Heat, who wouldn't know that glow were it not for Shaquille O'Neal, were willing to let him go in the hopes of getting it back.