The Florida State Seminoles are now 7-7 over their last 14 games.
Take a moment and digest that.
From last season through the Clemson game this Labor Day, Florida State -- a program that has been bowl-eligible for 25 years running, a team that was ranked no lower than 4th in the nation in the final AP poll in any season between 1990 and 1999 -- is a .500 team. Counting the Clemson game, the Seminoles have lost 5 of their last 8.
Their last 1,000-yard running back was Warrick Dunn in 1996 (and he did it three years in a row). Their last 1,000-yard receiver was Anquan Boldin in 2002. The last time a Florida State quarterback passed for 20 touchdowns or more was 2003, when the much-maligned Chris Rix hit for 23. Defensively, none of the Seminoles' all-time leaders in interceptions played more recently than 1997 (Samari Rolle, 12, tied for 6th). Among their all-time sack leaders, none played more recently than 2002.
Just what in the name of Ron Sellers, Deion Sanders, LeRoy Butler, Marvin "Shade Tree" Jones, Charlie Ward, Terrell Buckley, Derrick Brooks, Corey Sawyer, Peter Boulware, Peter Warrick, Marvin "Snoop" Minnis, Amp Lee, Casey Weldon, Chris Weinke, and Xavier freakin' Beitia is going on here?
If you live in Florida, you may think you know the Seminoles, but just for fun, go read up on them. Go peruse the list of players who have been honored in some fashion for their stellar play. Every name in the paragraph above was an All-American -- first team, second team, third team, or honorable mention -- on somebody's list.
Heck, you could start a pretty good all-star squad just with former Seminoles that have been featured in interviews on Sun Sports. Danny McManus would be the quarterback (from "Gridiron Greats"), William Floyd ("Tailgate Overtime") would throw blocks for Sammie Smith ("In My Own Words"), and LeRoy Butler (IMOW) would be the co-captain of the defense alongside Derrick Brooks (IMOW). And we haven't even touched the NFL yet, where 52 former Seminoles currently occupy roster spots, and we haven't mentioned Bobby Bowden, the winningest coach in major college football history.
So what's up with 7-7?
One season cannot measure a team, and neither can one game, no matter how bad FSU looked in the first half against Clemson. The Tigers brought two of the best running backs in the country into a Death Valley home game against a brand-new offense under a completely revamped coaching staff. Give the 'Noles a pass on Monday.
Instead, what matters is the whole picture. You have to step back and look at it from a distance, as Sgt. Jeff Rabin unwittingly suggests to US Customs agent Dave Kujan in "Usual Suspects." Only then, with the advantage of perspective, do the seemingly disparate pieces fall into place. Only then does the Kobayashi porcelain mug shatter on the floor, exposing the previous two hours -- or, in the case of Florida State, the previous five years -- for what it is.
Maybe Florida State just isn't that good anymore. Or maybe -- and this is my stance -- everybody else just got better, faster.
My main man Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel loves to point out that during Jeff Bowden's first five seasons as Florida State's offensive coordinator, the Seminoles dropped steadily in total offense each season. Here are the numbers he cites:
2000 (Mark Richt's final year as OC before leaving for Georgia): 549 yards per game, #1 in D-I football
2001 (Jeff Bowden's first season): 426 ypg, 26th
2002: 398 ypg, 32nd
2003: 402 ypg, 37th
2004: 372 ypg, 61st
2005: 376 ypg, 59th
In 2006, Bowden's final season as offensive coordinator, the Seminoles were 70th in the nation in total offense at 330 yards per game, and that was pretty much it for Jeff. Observers (like Mike) who have laid the Seminole decline at Jeff Bowden's feet point to those stats as the smoking gun. This year's dramatic turnover in coaching staff, which brought Jimbo Fisher over from LSU to run the offense and Rick Trickett down from West Virginia to coach the offensive line, can be traced to these numbers. For most of the fans I talk to, the question of "is it coaching, or is it the players?" will be answered in short order. Obviously, FSU is banking on "coaching."
But what about the players?
Go back to the 2000 season, when Florida State held that lofty #1 ranking in total offense. The quarterback was Chris Weinke, a senior. The wideouts included sophomore Anquan Boldin, sophomore Talman Gardner, senior Snoop Minnis, and junior Javon Walker, among others. The stable of running backs included Greg Jones and Travis Minor, along with lesser-knowns Jeff Chaney and Davy Ford, all four of whom were ranked among the top 21 rushers in the ACC by season's end.
Where are those guys now?
In the NFL, most of them. But what I mean is, where are their current equivalents? Where are the Peter Warricks, the Warrick Dunns, the Laverneus Coleses? There was a time when Florida State -- and Miami, for that matter -- simply had better players than anybody else. That time is gone.
I like to use the phrase "talent gap" when describing how former mid-major programs like Louisville, Boise State, and TCU have crept into weekly contention for a spot in college football's top 25. The theory is simple: mid-major programs that recruit aggressively, invest in their football program, and retain top-level coaches have closed the gap between themselves and the traditional powers in terms of talent. The distance between the haves and the have-nots in college football is shrinking, and all it takes is a home run here or there -- a Ray Rice to Rutgers, a Noel Devine to West Virginia, a new practice facility or a stadium upgrade -- to start shifting the tide. One boffo recruit leads to another, and then another. Once the ball starts rolling, it's tough to stop, and the gap shrinks.
Critics like to argue that Florida State is down, and if we judge the Seminoles on their own history, it's tough to dispute that position, although they've set the bar awfully high. But one could also find just as many stats, rankings, and bullet points to suggest that a lot of other programs are simply rising at a faster rate than ever before, and FSU has been treading water. The best talent in the country is no longer a lock for a power program like FSU -- and again, I could have written this entire entry about Miami and drawn the same conclusions.
Florida won a national championship last year with a two-year old coaching staff -- seemingly validating FireRonZook.com readers everywhere -- but they also did it with recruiting classes that were ranked 11th or better nationally by Scout.com in the three years leading up to Glendale. Over those same three years, Florida State's recruiting class was ranked 4th, 3rd, and 12th, respectively. The difference being, a good chunk of the players signed by the Seminoles during that span, including guys like Jamaal Edwards, Fred Rouse, and Brandon Warren, were lost to attrition via injury, transfer, what have you. First, you sign them -- then, you have to keep them, and develop them. Yes, it's the players, but it's also the coaching.
If Florida State bounces back this year -- and I think they will -- the new coaching staff must contribute in all facets: recruiting, retention, instruction, scheme, and development. The entire package. The competition, on and off the field, has never been more fierce.
Is it the coaching, or the players?
It's both. And that's the challenge for Florida State as they try to recapture the glory in 2007.
Labels: college football, theories