Final Four, Finally
One year ago (nearly to the day, in fact), I convincingly debunked the myth that "guard play is paramount in the NCAA Tournament." As Florida proved last year, "bigs" who can play trump above-average guards every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
My case has been neatly bolstered by the 2007 Final Four, which once again features four teams that depend on their bigs. Florida is back with Horford and Noah; the Gators get a rematch with UCLA, who returns with the glorious name of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in the middle, ably assisted by 6-9 junior Lorenzo Mata. The Ohio State-Georgetown semifinal pits Greg Oden against Roy Hibbert, a post battle already being hailed as one of the best in the NCAA Tournment in decades. UCLA is admittedly guard-heavy with Collison, Shipp, and Afflalo, but the other three teams in Atlanta will see their fortunes decided by the play of the tall guys.
Which is why Florida should win it again. The Gators' big men are simply better, and there are more of them.
I don't see UCLA being much of a problem in the semifinals, as the Bruins still have no answers for Horford, Noah, and Chris Richard. Assuming UF reaches the title game, however, there are serious challenges in either Georgetown or Ohio State.
Brady Ackerman and I discussed this on his radio show last week -- the Buckeyes have a whiff of "team of destiny" about them, and I'm very big on karma. Mike Conley, Jr. is my favorite player in the tournament right now, and Oden is a far different player from the one who watched the Gators hammer his teammates by 26 points back in December. For one thing, Oden is healthy, free of the wrist injury that limited him to 7 points and 6 rebounds in that December matchup; for another, that game was played in the maelstrom of the O'Connell Center on the UF campus. Ohio State is a much better team today than it was in December, and Oden is a much better player.
Similarly, Georgetown has delivered on the promise that led many experts to pick the Hoyas to win the whole enchilada this year. Hibbert is a monster; that's a given. Beyond the 7-2 junior, however, Georgetown sports a roster filled with five other players who go 6-8 or bigger. If the game is to be won in the trenches, as I have argued, the Hoyas match up well with Florida. That potential championship game gives me greater pause than would Florida-Ohio State.
Still, I think Florida will do it, if for no other reason than this: they're not losing anymore. That's the answer I keep coming up with when people ask me for a pick -- "Florida's not losing." Are they measurably better than UCLA, Ohio State, or Georgetown? That's debatable. But to my eye, none of those teams can fight back the way Florida has done in this tournament. I see the Gators trailing big in the first half of the championship game -- down by ten, maybe even twelve -- and then storming back in the second half with their patented blitz. I just do not see them losing.
As an aside, this could be a tough weekend for one of my neighbors in central Florida. Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers and his wife, Kris, have a vested interest in both Georgetown and Florida, if it comes to that on Monday night. Jeremiah Rivers is a freshman guard for the Hoyas, having chosen Georgetown after a stellar prep career at Winter Park High School. Jeremiah's sister, Callie, is now a senior at Winter Park, where she led the Wildcats to three straight Class 6A state championships in volleyball. Widely considered to be the best high school volleyball player in the state, Callie has committed to play for Mary Wise at Florida next fall. The Rivers are deeply committed to their kids' athletic aspirations; in between Celtics games, Doc has been flying back and forth to see Georgetown play in the NCAA Tournament, even though Jeremiah is playing only 11 minutes a night. The Celtics are off on Saturday, play at home on Sunday, and then have two days off before their next contest, so I know that Doc will be in Atlanta with his wife and family to see Georgetown play in the semis and possibly the championship game on Monday. If it's the Hoyas and the Gators, that's a great game -- but an emotionally challenging experience for Doc and Kris.
I still think that Callie will have bragging rights over her brother by Tuesday morning.
Labels: basketball
