Bullletin Board Material

Just curious: does anyone actually post anything on a bulletin board anymore?

We sportscasters are not allowed to earn our earpieces until we master the "bulletin board material" cliche'. You know the drill: Mouthy Superstar or Arrogant Head Coach flippantly offers a comment questioning the skills/talent/intelligence/legitimacy/masculinity of an upcoming opponent, and the talking head says, "...and THAT'LL be bulletin board material for the Rhein Fire this weekend!"

(And yes, I'm using an NFL Europe reference. Double bonus points for me.)

We have at least one piece of hard evidence of the Bulletin Board Material Theory from this college football season, as South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt apparently used a photo of Orlando Sentinel columnist David Whitley "riding" the USF Bull mascot as a rallying point for his squad shortly before they pulverized UCF.

You can read David's column to get the whole story, but to summarize: he wasn't knocking USF, per se. He was attempting to do something stupid in order to generate a reaction, which would make for a nice column. And by the way, it worked.

On the topic of David's employer, the Orlando Sentinel -- once, more than a decade ago, I watched an argument in the Orlando Magic locker room between Sentinel writer Brian Schmitz -- who still covers the team for the newspaper -- and then-power forward Jeff Turner. At the time, I was a broadcasting intern for the Magic, and I already knew Jeff to be a regular guy -- patient, accommodating, friendly to a fault. He's the kind of person who might coach your kids, or maybe live down the street from you. Come to think of it, he does coach kids, and he does live down the street from me.

Probably why I made that analogy.

Anyway, as I remember this scene, Jeff, who never yells at anything, was absolutely letting Brian have it over something Brian had written in his column that Jeff considered "motivational" for that night's opponent -- in other words, Bulletin Board Material. Jeff's argument was that the hometown newspaper should never print anything that an opponent could use to fire themselves up; Brian countered by defending his column as accurate and neutral, and found Jeff's position to be weak.

Hate to overdo this, but Jeff Turner really never gets mad, and he really was mad that night, and...man, you had to be there.

Point being, there's considerable anecdotal evidence for the Bulletin Board Material Theory, at least, in my career. I bring this up because, with the NBA season fast approaching, our Florida teams (and Sun Sports/FSN Florida partners) already have some material to clip and save.

Sports Illustrated has published its annual NBA season preview, and their experts have picked the Orlando Magic to miss the playoffs and finish 10th in the Eastern Conference. From the "Enemy Lines" section, wherein an opposing team's scout anonymously breaks down the Magic, there's this little nugget:

"I think they can be a better team, but I doubt that their record will be better because of the losses of those three guys [Grant Hill, Darko Milicic and Tony Battie]. I think it will be a good year if they can reach .500 without the leadership of Hill in the locker room and on the court, though they may be able to help themselves by acquiring an extra guy for the frontcourt..."

A "good year if they can reach .500"? Congratulations, Coach Van Gundy, you've just been handed some Bulletin Board Material.

What does SI have to say about the Miami Heat? The mag has them 4th in the East, and winning the Southeast Division. Again, from the "Enemy Lines":

"The big questions with Miami are going to involve injuries, age and chemistry. Those are three huge issues. Dwyane Wade is going to miss the start of the season while recovering from shoulder surgery. They're not going to win many games while he's out...Shaq will be 36 in March. He's on the downslide, and he's injury-prone...He's still the most dominant big man in the game, but I'm not sure he has enough around him...Overall, they'll have to do their best to hold on until Wade can come back in late November, which means riding Shaq without wearing him out. If they can stay competitive in the first part of the season, then they'll have a chance, but there will still be a lot of other issues for them to get through."

Ummm...and which part of this, exactly, compelled the SI writers to pick Miami to win its division and get home court in the first round? Did they choose to ignore this scout's perspective, or do they simply disagree with it?

Either way, The Diesel has just been handed Bulletin Board Material. And he's the kind of guy who eats that stuff up. Worth watching.

ESPN.com takes a different approach to its preseason previews, taking a poll of various NBA writers and columnists and presenting an "average" predicted finish, something akin to a college football poll. I tend to value this style a little more, for two reasons: first, it's a consensus of at least ten different writers, all of whom have different backgrounds, predilections, and fields of expertise. Logic would dictate that the results are more balanced. Second, each writer actually signs his or her name to the prediction, as opposed to SI's "anonymous" opposing scout. Accountability never hurts.

So where do ESPN's ten experts place the Magic? Five of them have Orlando winning the Southeast Division, four of them have the Magic finishing second, and Chris Sheridan says Orlando is a fourth-place team. Sheridan has the Magic 12th (!) in the Eastern Conference, while every other expert places them in the playoffs. ESPN's average predicted finish for the Magic in the Southeast Division is 1.7; the team's average predicted finish in the conference is 6.3.

Miami's scorecard: only one expert, J.A. Adande, picks them to win the Southeast, although nobody else on the board has the Heat lower than third. But here's the really interesting part: half of the expert panel, a full five out of ten members, picked Miami to miss the Eastern Conference playoffs entirely. ESPN's average finish for Miami in the Southeast is 2.4; in the conference, it's 7.8.

Voila, Pat Riley: Bulletin Board Material. Truthfully, this is probably more a statement about the perceived weakness of the Southeast Division than it is any endorsement of the Magic or the Heat, but it's an interesting disparity nonetheless.

For the sake of argument, the "Power Rankings" at CBS Sportsline have Miami and Orlando smack in the middle of the league at 14th and 15th, respectively. In the one NBA preseason poll that I never fail to read, the General Manager's Survey conducted by the league itself, both Miami and Orlando received votes as potential Eastern Conference champions and NBA champions (a serious stretch, in my view). Miami received 40.7% of the GM vote as predicted Southeast Division winners, while Orlando was close behind at 37%.

Not much Bulletin Board Material there. "We think you're gonna be okay" doesn't qualify as fightin' words.

So here's my quick take on Florida's two NBA franchises: in the early-season absence of Dwyane Wade, Miami will indeed struggle. Riles will whip them into something at or above .500, but they won't be blowing anybody's doors off. The over/under on Shaq's first five-game absence with a nagging injury is December 15th. Behind those two players, the Heat roster is thin -- Alonzo Mourning will again be called upon to play twice as many minutes as he should at this stage of his career, and there's a hard ceiling as to what you're going to get out of Ricky Davis, Smush Parker, and Jason Williams. But when those two players, O'Neal and Wade, are healthy, Miami can contend in the Southeast Division.

Orlando is more of a mystery. Dwight Howard will be a monster. Rashard Lewis will be consistent as a scorer for as long as he can stay healthy. The Magic are loaded with quality NBA players in the backcourt, with Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, and yes, JJ Redick, who I think will play a much larger role this season. Where Orlando suffers is up front -- Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Trevor Ariza, and even Pat Garrity can all bring offensive skills, but they'll all be forced to play out of position and guard bigger players. It would really help Stan Van Gundy's cause tremendously if it turns out that Marcin Gortat and/or James Augustine can play a lick, as that would take some minutes and pressure away from Howard and Adonal Foyle. I tend to agree with the Enemy Lines notion that Orlando needs at least one more big body.

Yet, as I look at the Southeast Division, the only team other than Miami or Orlando that can contend is Washington, which is a fun team to watch, but even thinner in the frontcourt than Orlando. The division will come down to the Wizards and Magic, with their free-for-all offenses and deep backcourts, against Miami, with the teetering health of Shaq and the MVP potential of Wade. Because of the presence of Dwight Howard, however, I have to give the Magic an early edge.

Hope that doesn't make anybody's bulletin board.