Back To School

Is anyone else ready for this summer to be over?

Honestly. Between Barry Bonds, Michael Vick, and the latest hurricane, August has been skull-crushingly boring. I'm actually looking forward to golf's new playoff system, the FedEx Cup, even though Tiger Woods decided to skip the first tournament. He probably found out that the FedEx Cup champion doesn't actually get paid.

I watched an opening-round game at the Little League World Series yesterday. Last week, I almost watched a preseason NFL game. It's getting bad. Perhaps I need to see someone about this.

Fortunately, we're about to get down to college football bidness.

Tonight marks the debut of the second season of "Tailgate Overtime" on Sun Sports, the Monday night roundtable that pits former Gator Chris Doering, former Seminole William Floyd, and former Hurricane Steve Walsh in a battle of glibness with me, Orlando Sentinel columnist Mike Bianchi, and national sports radio host Todd Wright. While we're still two weeks away from season openers, there's no lack of topics to discuss, like...

Can Florida repeat?

If history is any indication, no. The last team to win back-to-back outright national titles was Nebraska in 1994 and 1995 (Southern Cal shared it with LSU in 2003 before winning it at 13-0 in 2004). Prior to the Huskers, you have to go back to the Oklahoma teams of 1955 and 1956 to find another back-to-back undisputed national champ. The math is not favorable.

Far more relevant than history, of course, is reality, which is this: Florida breaks in 9 new starters on defense this year. If I were an opposing offensive coordinator, my game plan against Florida is to pass, pass, and pass again. The untested linebackers and secondary will be a target until they prove otherwise. As it happens, Florida plays in the pass-happy half of the SEC, with Erik Ainge back at Tennessee, Matt Stafford a year older at Georgia, Steve Spurrier's boys pitchin' it around at South Carolina, and Andre Woodson -- who may be the best quarterback in the conference -- ready to carry Kentucky. Furthermore, if and when the Gators get out of the SEC East, they still have the preposterously loaded LSU Tigers to worry about.

Offensively, I think Florida might actually be in better shape than they were last year. Though inexperienced, Tim Tebow is clearly better suited for the type of offense that Urban Meyer prefers to run, and he's surrounded by gazelles. Percy Harvin, Andre Caldwell, Jarred Fayson, Brandon James, Louis Murphy, Chris Rainey, and eight other guys who could start almost anywhere else in the state -- Florida's offensive cup of talent is overflowing. The defense is the question, and the concern.

Florida will score points at Spurrieresque levels this season, but at some point, they'll have to stop somebody, too. The defense will decide their season. Winning the SEC is not out of the question, but another BCS Championship Game win? With Southern Cal, West Virginia, Michigan, and LSU lurking? I'm not ready to hitch up with that wagon just yet.

Will Florida State turn it around?

7-6 doesn't get it done around here. After several seasons of blaming Jeff Bowden for everything up to and including global warming, a soft housing market, and rising gas prices, Seminole fans got their wish when Bobby Bowden revamped his coaching staff with a roster of All-Star assistants. The upshot is this: we're about to find out if it really was the coaching all this time, as opposed to the far less attractive possibility that Florida State simply hasn't been recruiting enough talent.

The first order of business on offense is to decide on a quarterback, as Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee battle for the job. By the way, I just cut and pasted that sentence from a blog entry in 2005. And 2006.

I have no idea how Weatherford and Lee conduct themselves behind the closed doors of the practice facility, but I'm completely impressed with the manner in which they have handled their very public three-year position battle. Neither one has snapped at the other yet, neither has dropped a comment like "well, the coaching staff has made their decision, and they went with Dipwad over there" on our live postgame show. Good for them.

In the "change my luck" department, Lee has decided to go back to his high school uniform number, because that's probably the last time he had fun playing football. Weatherford has grown his hair out from the freshman flattop to the Brodie Croyle moptop, because that's one of the four appearance changes that every male college student considers at least once during his four-year run.

(What's that? Oh, sure, be happy to: Long Hair, Goatee/Beard, Tattoo, Piercing. You all did at least one of those. I did three, but not all at the same time. I'm digressing again.)

Once the QB question is resolved, RB Antone Smith would love to deliver on the promise of Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker before him, and I happen to think he'll turn out better than both. He should become the first FSU running back to gain 1,000 yards in a season since Warrick Dunn. Florida State brings 8 starters back on defense, and the first half of the schedule is favorable. There's a lot to be happy about.

The key question for Florida State involves the speed with which these players pick up on the instruction of the new staff. And once the coaching honeymoon period is over, are there enough good players on that roster to compete for the ACC title?

I think there are. I think there's a sense of relief now that the blistering media attention on Jeff Bowden is gone. I think there's a little desperation now, a good kind of desperation, as the new assistants and the players realize that Bobby Bowden is running out of chances. I think the current Seminoles are a better group than they've been given credit for. When they play free and easy -- as in last year's Emerald Bowl, for example -- they're pretty good.

They may not win their conference. They may not even reach the championship game. But they'll be better than 7-6. Maybe only one game better, but better.

Will Miami be Miami again?

Man, I wish I knew. The Hurricanes are a tough call this season. They've just looked lost over the last couple of years. Undisciplined, maybe, but more disinterested. Like most of them hate each other. Or just don't care about each other, which is worse.

Into this particular meadow of sweetness and light steps Randy Shannon, the former UM player and assistant, who brings precisely zero sympathy for the college football player of today. Not only is Shannon the first member of his family to earn a college degree, he's very nearly the first member of his family to make it out of Liberty City alive. "I overslept, Coach" is no longer a valid excuse for anything. Shannon's list of rules for Miami football players has been well-documented -- now we find out if it makes any difference.

Miami has the best secondary in the ACC and one of the best in the country. Javarris James (cousin of Edgerrin) has a chance to be excellent at RB. Their wideouts have let them down over the last two seasons, and there's competition at linebacker and tight end -- three positions that, over the years, helped build the Miami mystique. The Hurricanes have their own quarterback question, one that may be answered by injury. Kyle Wright has the experience, but Kirby Freeman had the momentum last season, and his case was helped when Wright aggravated a knee injury. In all, nine starters are back on offense, 8 on defense. That's a ton of talent returning, but it's talent that delivered a 7-6 record last season and a four-game losing streak that cost Larry Coker his job.

Because Randy Shannon is such a good man, I wish good things for Miami. But there's something in the back of my mind that makes me cautious. By the time the 'Canes play Florida State in October, we'll know who they really are.

What else is there?

Too much to list, actually. Is George O'Leary on the hot seat at UCF after a giant step backwards last season? Can we truly call it a "Big Four" in this state now that South Florida is receiving preseason top-25 votes? Can Kerwin Bell make Jacksonville University football interesting? Will Florida International win a game this season?

We'll take these one day at a time. Gotta pace myself. Like I said, August has been tough.

See you on TV.