The Donaghy Dominoes

At this moment, Michael Vick is Tim Donaghy's biggest fan. Seriously, what's dogfighting when compared to taking down an entire league?

While Vick enjoys a brief respite from the media glare, those of us who still care about the NBA are glued to the Donaghy story. Until we see a smoking gun, however -- a written record in the vein of Pete Rose's betting slips, for example -- the speculation around Donaghy is just that: speculation.

ESPN.com has posted a game log of every NBA contest that Donaghy worked last season, with the pregame betting lines and the actual outcomes listed side-by-side. While we can safely assume that the FBI and the Justice Department has a little more to go on, we civilians have little else but boxscores. Understand, the Donaghy game log proves nothing. But it's interesting nonetheless:

-Donaghy worked eight Miami Heat games last year. Miami's record in those contests: 1-7.

In fairness, most of them weren't close; six of the eight games were decided by 14 points or more. Miami's only win among those eight "Donaghy games" was a 113-93 trouncing of the Charlotte Bobcats in February. In that game, Charlotte was whistled 26 times; Miami picked up ten fewer personal fouls (but then again, Miami shot 62 percent from the floor that night).

-Donaghy worked eight Orlando Magic games last year as well, but the Magic were 4-4 in those contests. However, half of those games were decided by 8 points or less.

The Magic's record in those four close "Donaghy games?" One win, three losses.

The three losses in question came against the Pistons on April 8th (an 8-point loss in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series), the Rockets on February 25th (4 points), and the Hawks on January 26th (3 points). In all three cases, however, the Magic were whistled less than their opponent.

Understand that box scores don't tell us which referee called the foul; only the NBA has that information. Furthermore, there's no way of knowing how many calls the ref didn't make, and as any basketball fan knows, sometimes that's just as important, if not more so.

But let's play a little game.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Tim Donaghy somehow affected the outcome of one of the Magic's regular season losses last year. Just one.

If you replace that loss with a win, the Magic's record goes from 40-42 to 41-41, which, all else being equal, would have landed them in a three-way tie with Washington and New Jersey at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff ladder. We'd be heading for tiebreakers.

According to the NBA, the process for breaking a three-way tie is to first determine which team has the best regular-season record against the other two. Orlando and Washington were 2-2 against each other last season; Washington was 0-4 against the Nets, while the Magic were 2-2 against New Jersey. So it's Orlando and New Jersey atop the tiebreaker at 4-4, with the Wiz slipping behind them at 2-6.

The next tiebreaker is conference record. Since the Nets had the better Eastern Conference mark than the Magic, New Jersey keeps the 6 seed, but Orlando moves up to 7th. Again, all things being equal, that's a first-round matchup against the 2nd-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers instead of the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.

The Magic went 0-4 against Detroit in the regular season last year, and not surprisingly, got swept by the Pistons in the first round as well.

But the Cavs?

Orlando beat the eventual Eastern Conference champs in two out of three regular season meetings. The Magic beat them at home, and beat them by 11 on the road. Orlando's only regular season loss to the Cavaliers was by three points in Cleveland, a game that, despite 32 points from Lebron James, went down to the wire thanks to three missed free throws by the Cavs in the final 18 seconds.

Point being, an Orlando-Cleveland series would have been competitive. A hell of a lot more competitive than the Orlando-Detroit series. The Magic would have had a shot.

What if Orlando wins that series?

If nothing else changes, the Magic would have faced the Bulls in the second round, after Chicago eliminated the defending champion Heat. And how did the Magic do against the Bulls last year?

Yep, another winning record. Two wins, one loss -- although the loss was a blowout at home. By now, you get the point.

It's admittedly a ton of woulda-coulda-shoulda, but the potential domino effect of one more win for Orlando is inescapable. If Orlando beats Cleveland in the first round, does Brian Hill still have his job? Does Grant Hill decide to stay? Does the downtown venue plan receive a huge momentum surge? What could one more win, and a first-round playoff series victory, have done to change the course of the Magic franchise?

And what about the Heat and that 1-7 record in "Donaghy games?" If Miami goes just 5-3 in those games, they finish with a better record than Toronto and jump to the 3rd seed in the playoffs, avoiding Chicago -- a team that had the Heat's number, with three wins against Miami in four regular season meetings -- and instead would have faced New Jersey, a team that went 1-3 against the Heat last year. Think they could win that playoff series?

Now, take that line of thinking and apply it to the remaining 28 NBA teams, and you understand why the Donaghy situation is so terrifying for the league office. Donaghy may have been exerting influence on just one game at a time, but the ripple effect is nearly impossible to calculate -- and potentially far more damaging.