Knowing What We Don't Know

Frankly, I'm surprised it took this long.

Thursday morning, Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel brought a previously underplayed story to light -- the mounting pressure on Magic head coach Brian Hill. Hill, who returned to Orlando two years ago after an eight-year absence, has been hammered for his substitution patterns, his offensive schemes, his use of Darko Milicic and JJ Redick (or lack thereof), you name it -- and that was before a 4-0 sweep in the first round against Detroit. Until now, however, dissatisfaction with Hill on these points and others had been expressed most consistently via message boards and blogs, including one whose title should remove all doubt of its intent: FireBrianHill.org.

As of Thursday morning, the story has gone MSM (mainstream media, for the uninitiated). It's been laid out for even the casual fan. When team president Bob Vander Weide goes on the record with this:

"People ask me if Brian Hill will be back as our coach. All I can say is that I have no answer for that right now."

and this:

"Style of play is one of the key things.''

...we have officially moved from internet venom to news story.

This past season, when asked about Brian Hill and/or the Magic, I usually offered a stock response (which I actually believe, by the way): "We have no idea what goes on at practice, in meetings, and behind closed doors. There's always more to it than you get from reading the paper or watching the game."

I believe this because, unlike most sportswriters or radio hosts (or TV anchors, for that matter), I've actually worked directly for a franchise. From 1993 through 1997, I was a television producer for the Magic's in-house broadcast department. Even with that level of "access," I was never privy to seeing how hard a certain player worked in practice (or didn't). I couldn't judge a player's attitude away from the floor over the course of an 82-game season. Though I knew how much money each player was making, I wasn't fielding phone calls from his agent, or taking calls from other GM's about potential trades, or charged with solving the NBA's salary cap puzzle under pressure from ownership, so therefore I lacked the information necessary to make an accurate judgement of his "value." Certainly, I knew more than the average fan, and like a fan, I was free to assess the team's play on the floor, but I also knew what I didn't know. I still do, I hope.

Fans don't live it every day like coaches, players, and staff, so they have no option but to form their opinions based on the info they get. And to their credit, that info cannot be disputed. Huge expectations were placed on this Magic team entering the 2006-2007 season, based on their 16-6 finish last year, the ongoing development of Dwight Howard, and the relative weakness of the Eastern Conference. Shoot, I'm as guilty as anyone. As I wrote here in November, "If this team doesn't at least contend for home court in the 2007 NBA Playoffs, this will be a season of wasted opportunity."

The result: a team that struggled mightily in scoring (27th out of 30 teams) and with turnovers (2nd most in the league). A team that bolted out to a 13-4 start, only to limp into the playoffs as the 8th seed. A 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Detroit Pistons. Wasted opportunity, indeed. It should have been better.

As a result, Brian Hill is feeling the heat, because that's what happens to head coaches.

Full disclosure: I know Brian. We don't exchange holiday cards, nor would we call each other for a game of tennis, but we know each other. The common questions I heard this year: Why didn't he play Redick more? Why was Darko underutilized? What determined each man's playing time from game to game? I have no ready answer for any of that. All I know, as stated above, is that there's plenty I don't know.

But based on what I do know, here's my take.

You will never find a coach, or a person, more meticulous than Brian Hill. His attention to detail is unparalleled, from his physical appearance to his plans for games and practices. I cannot imagine that any NBA head coach puts more time and effort into preparation than Brian Hill.

Personality is part of it. We are who we are. Some people thrive on the little things, and Brian is one of them. But I would add this (and here comes the theory): in his heart of hearts, Brian realizes that he is a coaching lifer in a players' league. He never played a minute of NBA basketball himself, and as such, he believes he has to work double-time to earn the respect of his players, as well as the respect of fellow coaches and executives. There's always been a sense of "chip-on-shoulder" with Brian, which is not such a bad thing.

To carry this theory to the next step: when your fallback position is to outwork and outprepare the other guy, you can find trouble on game day, when things inevitably fall apart. It can be insanely frustrating when your players aren't paying as much attention to detail as you are, or when their execution isn't as flawless as yours. I would agree with those who claim that Coach Hill was reluctant to make adjustments when things didn't go according to plan, but I would add that planning is what got him here. You dance with the one that brung you.

Interestingly, former Magic coach Doc Rivers was often criticized for supposedly occupying the opposite end of the spectrum -- all feel, no data. He was ridiculed in Boston this year for using 25 different starting lineups and once promising that he wouldn't create a rotation "just for the sake of having a rotation." As is usually the case, the answer is most likely found somewhere in between.

Brian Hill knows basketball -- probably knows it better than even he believes. The hard part for him (and again, this is just my theory) is trusting his own knowledge and experience enough to let go. Sometimes, flying by the seat of one's pants is not only acceptable, it's necessary. Instincts can carry you a long way, especially when those instincts are grounded in homework. I don't think Brian would be hurt by allowing himself to swing a little closer to the "feel" side.

But again, homework is what got him here. If his job is indeed on the line, does he agree to loosen things up and let the kids play, or does he stick with the philosophy that kept him in the league in the first place? What would you do? This entire conversation, by the way, is predicated on the notion that a coaching change will solve all of the Magic's problems, which is laughably inaccurate -- but the players aren't the ones under the gun in the newspaper this morning. And besides, that's another blog entirely.

I've already fielded phone calls today from friends in the media who have "sources" at the Magic who indicate that a shakeup is on the way. These "sources" sound awfully sketchy to me, but you never know. Maybe a coaching change is imminent. Maybe more than just a coaching change. Perhaps the team is planning to make a dramatic statement, in one form or another, that proves they're serious about winning -- and with the arena deal percolating in Orlando, now would admittedly be an excellent time to make a splash. With that in mind -- and the team's future in central Florida potentially hanging in the balance -- this will be a crucial off-season for the Magic, perhaps the most important in team history.

Regardless of what you hear or read in the days and weeks to come regarding coaching, players, staff, or arenas, remember this: there's a lot that we don't know. Believe me, I know.