Haven't We Seen This Before?

So let me get this straight -- Pat Riley is returning to the bench in Miami now that the team's fortunes have improved, and Doc Rivers is coaching a team on an historic losing streak. What, are we getting a do-over on 2004?

If you'll recall, Riley stepped down as head coach of the Heat once before, handing the reins to Stan Van Gundy shortly before the 2003-2004 season. After an 0-7 start, the Heat came back to finish with 42 wins, thanks largely to rookie Dwyane Wade, who was the best player on the floor in Miami. Refreshed by his time off -- and smart enough to notice that Wade was on the verge of becoming the best player on the floor, period -- Riley returned to the bench in December of 2004.

Did I mention that Miami had traded for Shaquille O'Neal during the offseason? Made that decision pretty easy, I bet.

Riley's surgery for existing hip and knee problems took him back off the bench in January of this year, after the Heat hit New Year's Eve at four games under .500. Under interim coach Ron Rothstein, the team went 12-9, with six wins in seven games leading up to Tuesday night's home game with Portland. In a related story, Riley's hip and knee feel MUCH better.

Doc Rivers, meanwhile, was at the helm in Orlando during that '03-'04 season when the Magic embarked on a stunning 19-game losing streak - one more loss than the Celtics have currently enjoyed in succession, as of this writing - and Doc was fired during a road trip in Utah. Technically, Doc wasn't in charge for all 19 of those losses - he was relieved of his duties in November '03, when the Magic were only 1-10. Johnny Davis stepped in to guide the club to nine more L's, a streak that finally ended on December 8, 2003, with a home win over Phoenix. I was assigned to that game as the pregame/sideline host for Sun Sports (stepping in for Television's Paul Kennedy), and gleefully took credit for ending the streak.

While Riley's yo-yo act with the Miami coaching job is oddly familiar, Doc's situation in Boston bears little resemblance to his final days in Orlando. Boston has played without Paul Pierce for all but one of those 19 straight losses; the four Celtics who have logged over 1,000 minutes this season - Sebastian Telfair, Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, and Al Jefferson - are all second- or third-year players, all under the age of 25. Of the few proven veterans on the roster other than Pierce, none of them can carry a team alone. In short, Doc's in a no-win situation (literally), and Celtics management has to know it. That's why there's been a lack of "Fire Doc" chatter in Boston. They may not be tanking for a draft pick, but the Celtics are sacrificing today to play for tomorrow, when guys like Gerald Green, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo, and the four toddlers mentioned above will (hopefully) turn into something special. Doc's challenge is to hang on until that happens.

The Magic, on the other hand, had Tracy McGrady in 2003-2004. A healthy, explosive Tracy McGrady, in his 7th NBA season, who was coming off a first team All-NBA performance in 2002-2003: 32 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists per game, the first number good enough to win him the scoring title. While McGrady would repeat as scoring champion in '03-'04, he was simply too good to explain a 19-game losing streak (or a 1-10 start, for that matter). So Doc had to go, although in retrospect, I wonder if that '03-'04 season in Orlando said more about T-Mac than it did Doc. It's worth noting that McGrady is now ten years into his pro career and has yet to win a playoff series. Then again, neither has Doc, although his coaching career is about three years shorter than McGrady's playing record.

So as we exit the Wayback Machine, here's the question: which coach - Riley or Rivers - is more likely to be in his current position next season? In an upset, I'll say Doc. The Celtics are terribly young, but have promise at almost every position, and the chance of a very good draft pick this summer. Paul Pierce's contract ties up a big chunk of change through 2011, but he can still play. As long as Celtics ownership and Danny Ainge remain patient - a big "if" in this league - there's light on the horizon. It certainly helps that the Celtics play in the same market as the Patriots and Red Sox, which diffuses the media pressure considerably.

As for Riley, he's turning 62 this spring, and may be souring on the daily grind of coaching. Shaq turns 35 just a few weeks before Riles' birthday, and has missed at least ten games in five of his last six seasons. Yes, Riley still has Wade, arguably the best player in the league at the moment, but he's also got seven players on his roster at or near a decade in the NBA. If Miami makes a run in the playoffs this season, Riley may take the shuttle back to the upstairs office.

Just like old times.