My Basketball Fantasy

Remember the movie "About Last Night..."? A treasure trove of great lines, most from the mouth of Jim Belushi, who was at the absolute pinnacle of his mediocre dramatic powers when the film was released in 1986. There's a scene wherein Rob Lowe's character, "Danny," tells Belushi's "Bernie" that he (Danny) told his new girlfriend (Demi Moore, before she started her 6-hour-per-day workout schedule) that he loved her. Bernie shakes his head in disbelief:

"Ohhh, Dan, Dan, Dan, Dan, DAN! Who said it first?"
"I did."
"OHHH, Dan, Dan, Dan, Dan, DAN!"

Remember? Anyway, Bernie would have been apoplectic after my NBA fantasy league draft this weekend. See, I love my team, but that's not how you win fantasy leagues. You win fantasy leagues by knowing how the game is played, and drafting guys who excel in that format.

Here's how our game is played: each owner drafts a roster of eight players, with five starters scoring each week. The starting lineups are very specific - a point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center. None of this "three guards, three forwards" nonsense. Your guys have to actually qualify at their specific positions, including your bench, which must consist of one guard, one forward, and one center. Needless to say, homework before draft night is everything, and drafting players who qualify at more than one position is a premium.

For each player, add up his points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals for the week. Subtract his turnovers, missed field goals, and missed free throws for the week. You get a number for that player - a good per-game score in our league is 20 points per player - and you add up your five starters to obtain a weekly score for your team. Note that because we use cumulative fantasy points and not a per-game average, owners must be cognizant of how many games each player has each week - Kevin Garnett might score more points over three games than Antawn Jamison will score in four. That's part of the alleged "skill" in this particular league - setting your lineups accordingly. We keep two sets of standings each season, head-to-head and overall. That's it.

This particular league has been around for damn near fifteen years. It's so old that we used to compute our weekly scores by hand. I've been involved for over a decade, with an ownership group that has remained unbelievably stable. Even when I was living in Connecticut, I was able to draft and trash-talk my way through the season via the internet, the league having moved to a website several seasons ago. The research is exponentially easier now. And with those ten years of knowledge under my belt, I still managed to commit the cardinal sin of fantasy sports: NEVER draft a team that you "like." Draft a team that will WIN.

"Ohhh, Whit, Whit, Whit, Whit, WHIT! Who'd you take first?"

Tim Duncan. I had the eighth pick in a 12-team league, and he was the best available. Plus, he qualifies as a power forward and a center in our league, and like I said, positions are crucial. Getting a franchise center in the first round (there are maybe three guys in the NBA who qualify under our system) is a no-brainer. Elton Brand was one of them, but he went sixth. From what I've read, Duncan is in the best shape of his life, and the lack of international play this summer gave him a chance to recharge and recover from the foot problems that plagued him last season. I'm okay with Duncan at number 8, because I think he's this year's Renaissance Man, and because he was a perennial contender for the number one overall pick in our league as recently as two years ago. I'll even live with the missed free throws.

It's a snake draft, so I was up again at 17. Chris Paul. Franchise point guards are only slightly more scarce than centers, and I happen to believe that Paul is on the verge of becoming a monster. In most mock drafts I've seen, he was within the top 12 picks, so I feel like I stole him at 17. I'm okay there, too. Really like that pick.

My third-round pick was the 32nd overall. At this point, fantasy stalwarts like Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, Jason Kidd, and Vince Carter (in a contract year, took a looooong look at him) are long gone. My center and point guard positions are covered. Never waste a high pick on a 2-guard, because you can pick up a hot one in mid-season. I wanted a small forward who would score consistently and perhaps play more than one position.

The most important stat to look at when drafting in our league? Minutes. Guys who stay on the floor are guys who win for you. Checking last year's stats, and considering the field of players available, I settled on Richard Jefferson. He rarely misses games - injured players have submarined more owners in our league than any other factor - and his fantasy numbers over the last few years are stellar. Plus, he's a 2-3 in our league. Versatility. Not a sexy name, but I did my homework.

Now, things get dicey.

Fourth round, 41st overall. Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, Boris Diaw, Tony Parker, and Josh Smith - all on my target list - have just been snapped up before me. Need a shooting guard, but preferably one that can swing to another position, to give me some flexibility in my lineup. Checking the stats from last season, there's one name that jumps up. I like him, and I know that few other owners will target him. Do I wait another round? Naaah, I like this guy.

Kirk Hinrich.

Okay, his shooting percentage is ka-ka, but he plays tons of minutes for Coach Chucky in Chicago and he scores. In our league, he's a 1-2. Let's move on.

Fifth round, 56th overall. Moving into the Dreck Division of our draft, but this is where you earn your money - err, figuratively speaking, of course. A couple of dumb picks go before me, including Jameer Nelson (I adore him as a player, but not in the fourth round), Marcus Camby (over/under on number of games before first injury: twelve), and Grant Hill (combination of my love for Jameer and injury likelihood of Camby). Need a power forward to round out my starting five. Looking for more than one position. There he is, but he was hurt most of last year. Do I trust his rehab regimen, and his doctors?

I do. Carlos Boozer. Utter stat monster in our league, but prone to injury. Damn. Morale is fading.

The last three picks in this league can be world-beaters - in previous seasons, I have taken guys like Steve Nash, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudamire in rounds five through eight - or they can be duds that you drop within a month. I am determined to uncover diamonds with my latter picks. So I go Andres Nocioni, Shaun Livingston, and Samuel Dalembert with picks number 65, 80, and 89, respectively. Rationale: Nocioni was a monster for the latter half of last season and the playoffs, and Skiles likes him (read: minutes). Livingston is the Next Big Thing in LA, a pick bolstered by the post-draft news that he may be the Clippers' starting point guard over Cassell on opening night. Dalembert is a raw project who rebounds and blocks shots without demanding the ball - a perfect fantasy player, as a backup, anyway. That's my squad.

Paul, Hinrich, Jefferson, Boozer, and Duncan starting, with Livingston, Nocioni, and Dalembert on the bench. I'd take that rotation to win the Eastern Conference right now.

And that's when it hit me: I just drafted a great NBA team, one that I would gladly pay to watch. Every guy is personable, intriguing, and loaded with upside. If I were a real NBA general manager, I'd be due for a raise. But this isn't the real NBA. This is fantasy basketball. And there's an excellent chance that the guy who drafted Gilbert Arenas, Paul Pierce, and Ben Wallace with his first three picks will kick my tush. With stunning clarity, I realize that after a decade of covering the NBA, I have started to think like a real GM, considering the human element of each player on my squad, when the smart money is on ball-hogging stat sluts like Ricky Davis (whom I have christened The Flying Pig). I think I broke the cardinal rule of fantasy sports.

Never draft a team you like. Draft a team that will win.

Somewhere, Bernie is still shaking his head over a beer at Mother's. Then again, after a rough patch, Danny won back his girlfriend's heart at the end of the movie. And further, have I mentioned that I've won this league twice in the last five years, finishing second last season?

Stay tuned.

A Matter Of Perspective

Pop quiz: which one of these quotes came from a winning coach on Saturday, and which one came from a coach that lost?

"We've got a lot of issues right now...We've got to get this thing right. We've got a lot of work to do."

or...

"We have very few seniors on this team, so our future is looking good."

Wrong.

The first line is from Urban Meyer, as quoted by the Orlando Sentinel's Mike Bianchi after Florida extended its dominance over Georgia to 15 wins in the last 17 years. The second is from Bobby Bowden, quoted in the Tallahassee Democrat after a 3-point road loss to Maryland that put FSU at 4-4, its worst start since 1976 - Bowden's first year in Tallahassee.

Let's answer the second question first.

Xavier Lee, the former Florida Mr. Football from Daytona Beach who has been embroiled in a (relatively quiet) quarterback battle with Drew Weatherford for the last two seasons, played about as well as he could possibly play. Lee got the start in place of the (cough) injured Weatherford - funny how Drew's foot started to hurt about 48 hours after he called out his coaching staff in the press for failing to establish an offensive identity - and the X-man cameth. Lee's 286 yards in the air represented the best debut effort for a Florida State QB since (gasp) Danny Kanell threw for 341 in his first start back in '93 - also against Maryland, also on the road. In fact, since Florida State joined the ACC in 1992, only Kanell and Lee managed to crack 285 yards passing in their first starts.

Aside from Lee "answering the bell," as Bowden put it, the coach was pleased to see that his players refused to cave, despite the adverse conditions in College Park and the absence of an ACC Championship Game carrot to dangle. Florida State outpassed the Terps, outrushed them, recorded more first downs, converted more third downs, and generally "played their hearts out" (Bowden again) - but lost. That's the reality of FSU football in 2006. They're just an average college football team, a fact that drives longtime Seminole boosters nuts.

Those who wish for Bobby Bowden's retirement would do well to peruse some newspaper articles from 2003 and 2004, a two-season stretch wherein Penn State went 7-16. Bowden always has one eye on Joe Paterno, and you have to believe that Bobby is well aware of what happened in 2005: the sun rose, the kids got a little older and a little better, and the Nittany Lions went 11-1, capped by a victory over FSU in the Orange Bowl.

Perspective is an amazing thing. Bobby Bowden has it. He knows that the fortunes of a college football program can turn on a dime. Right now, he's depending on it. For his sake, I hope it happens quickly.

Will Lee be the starting quarterback next week against Virginia? At this point, why not?

As for Florida: Urban Meyer's displeasure with his offense reinforces a prevailing sentiment among Gator Nation, one that, I think, is rooted in the Spurrier era. When the Old Ball Coach was entrenched in Gainesville, the Gators didn't just beat their opponents - they routed them. Florida doesn't do that anymore.

By any measure - rush defense, pass efficiency defense, scoring defense, total defense - the Gators are among the ten best defensive units in the country, ranked first or second in the SEC in all four categories above. Offensively? 35th in the country in passing, 43rd in scoring. That's what has Meyer's knickers in a wad, and Gator fans who were raised on the Fun & Gun are feeding from the same trough.

Yet, Florida is 7-1, having just won three out of four in their mid-season gauntlet of Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Georgia. Beat Vandy and South Carolina, and the Gators punch their ticket to the SEC Championship Game for the first time in six years.

Excuse me, but isn't that exactly what Meyer was hired to do?

This is the team you have. They're unbelievably good on defense, front to back. Anybody watch the Georgia wideouts flinch every time Reggie Nelson came within ten yards? Another thing - for all of Meyer's lamentations about offensive production, it's worth noting that Florida has outrushed every single opponent this season, and 18 of 20 opponents since he arrived in Gainesville.

No, it doesn't look like a Spurrier offense. Sometimes, it's downright ugly. But this is the team you have, and it's winning. Which is the whole point.

One coach bummed after a win, another optimistic after a loss. Meanwhile, as Florida International remains winless and UCF watches its season spiral down the tubes, Howard Schnellenberger leads Florida Atlantic to a 29-0 pasting of Arkansas State. The loss was the first in the Sun Belt this year for the Indians, while the Owls of Boca Raton have now bounced back from an 0-4 start - during which they were outscored 192-20 - to win three of their last four and remain in the hunt for a Sun Belt title.

And one more thing - next week, Jacksonville University hosts the University of San Diego, the top-ranked team in I-AA football, in a showdown that could decide the Pioneer Football League title.

It's all about the winning. No matter what it looks like.

Just Run The Numbers

I love statistics. My old friend Dave Revsine loves them too. Numbers are comforting; they provide answers. Even better, they end arguments.

When I get an e-mail from a disgruntled Gator fan complaining about Florida's defense - as was the case last week - I can quickly point out that entering the Auburn game, UF had the top scoring defense and rush defense in the SEC. Conference opponents were averaging 2.0 yards per carry against Florida this season, and the Gators had yet to allow a touchdown in a fourth quarter.

See? Argument over. Florida's defense is good.

But sometimes, numbers betray me. Consider: Florida has won 8 of their last 9 meetings with Auburn. The Gators' all-time record at Jordan-Hare Stadium is 8-24-1. Both of those statements are true (flashback to SAT prep course; getting dizzy).

On paper, it seems like there's no way Florida could lose this game. Kenny Irons rushes for 102 yards per game? Florida's rush defense only allows 56.8. Courtney Taylor and Rod Smith account for 44 percent of Auburn's receptions? Florida has four players with at least one interception, and leads the SEC with 11 picks overall - and now they know who to cover. Auburn allows only 11 points per game? Florida averages 29 - and Arkansas, a team that puts up only 21 a game (85th in the country), scored 27 against the Tigers last week.

Slam dunk, right? Wrong. Not when the game is at Auburn, at night, coming as it does three games into a four-game SEC crucible the likes of which Florida has never experienced. Not when the Tigers are coming off the crushing loss to Arkansas, a game in which their offensive line was emasculated for 5 sacks (now 18 sacks allowed this season, 2nd-most in the SEC - dammit, another stat. Sorry).

Any guess is just that - a guess. Call this the first true toss-up of Florida's season.

I do know this: Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has to game-plan for three Florida quarterbacks. Yes, three.

There's Chris Leak, Passer. All-time leader at Florida in attempts and completions, now 1200 yards away from securing Saint Danny's holy grail in Gainesville.

There's Tim Tebow, Runner. Second-leading rusher on the Florida roster, his 5.6 yards per carry good for 4th in the nation among quarterbacks - and to appreciate that stat, consider that only 17 quarterbacks out of 119 Division I programs have a positive yards-per-carry average at all.

And now, there's Tim Tebow, Passer. Two TD passes last week against LSU, one coming straight out of Knute Rockne's 1932 game plan for the big matchup with Fordham. After The Jump Pass (and mark my words, it will be capitalized among Gator fans for many years to come), Tebow's second TD pass was a direct result of his resume' as Tim Tebow, Runner: one hard step forward, freezing the linebackers - who clearly had the fear of God thrown into them by Les Miles during the film sessions to look for Tebow to run - and one easy step back to fire a perfectly acceptable college football pass to Louis Murphy, who might never be that wide open again for the rest of his life.

One opponent, three quarterbacks. That's why defensive coordinators get paid the big bucks.

Speaking of which - Randy Shannon gets to game-plan against his own kid this weekend as Miami faces Florida International University.

Young Xavier spends most post-football Sundays hanging out at his dad's office at UM. Father-son time and all that. This week was different, however - Xavier, a former walk-on, has risen to the starting center position at FIU, meaning that Randy, as Miami's defensive coordinator, was scheming methods of knocking his son out of his cleats.

Xavier: "Hey, dad, whatcha workin' on?"

Randy (quickly hitting ctrl-alt-del on the keyboard): "Hey, Tiger! Oh, umm...nothing, really. How was school?"

Xavier: "You working on us for next week?"

Randy (light bulb over head): "Umm...yeah! Yes, I am, in fact. We're kicking around some new ideas for Saturday. Want to hear them?"

Xavier (suspiciously): "You sure?"

Randy (big smile): "Of course. You're my guy, right? No worries. Yeah, we think we're gonna go with the old 2-1-8 alignment, and maybe have the defensive backs wear their helmets backwards. Try to confuse that QB of yours. Also, we're enforcing a strict no-contact policy, and I'm really focusing on teaching the linebackers how to tackle with only their left arms. Should be a great game. Run along, now."

In truth, Dad could photocopy the Miami game plan for Saturday and slip it under Xavier's pillow, and it wouldn't make much difference. The underdog in me - the guy who bleats mindlessly about a Big Five - would love to see Miami-FIU develop into a real series, a city rivalry along the lines of USC-UCLA or TCU-SMU. And it could happen. Xavier Shannon won't be there to see it - and in all likelihood, neither will Randy - but it could happen.

Oh, yeah - and Florida State is playing Duke. Here's everything you have to know about this historic matchup: Duke is 0-14 against Florida State in ACC play, giving up 44 points or more in 13 of those 14 games. This season, the Blue Devils have the worst scoring offense in Division I football: five points per game. And they've been shut out in three of their first five games this season, including their season opener - against I-AA Richmond.

Okay, sometimes the numbers don't lie.

Tight Show

"This CANNOT be right."

That was my first reaction when I spotted a note on tight ends in Florida State's official game notes prior to the NC State game on Thursday. On page six, there's a chart listing "Recent Tight End Leaders" that dates back to 2001 - mysteriously ambiguous, I should think. Leaders how? In catches? Yards? Didn't say. Just "Recent Tight End Leaders."

And on that chart, we find zero touchdown passes thrown to a Florida State tight end from 2001 through 2005. Like I said, that CANNOT be right.

I mentioned the stat a couple of times on the live Seminole Postgame show on Thursday night, after FSU freshman Brandon Warren broke the apparent schneid by catching a TD pass. Later that night, I noticed that a few viewers had picked up on it, and repeated the stat on the FSU message boards. Nobody seemed too surprised, either.

Then, Friday morning, I received an e-mail from Florida sportswriter Corey Long, who claimed that the stat was incorrect - he wrote that Matt Henshaw did indeed catch a touchdown pass against Florida in 2003.

The print version of the FSU media guide was no help. The recent NCAA rules that prohibit schools from using media guides as 500-page recruiting bibles have severely reduced the amount of historical information available in those guides. So, I went to the NCAA's official statistics website, which archives Division I football stats back to 1999.

Lo and behold, Corey was right. Matt Henshaw not only caught a touchdown pass against Florida in 2003 - his first career TD catch at Florida State - he also caught one against Miami in the Orange Bowl game at the end of that season. Furthermore, there's a record of Paul Irons catching one against Virginia in 2001. As best as I could find, those three TD passes - only two of which were in the regular season - were the only three scoring passes thrown to a Florida State tight end from 2001 through the first four games of 2006, with Warren's catch on Thursday raising the total to four.

Again, I went back to the FSU game notes for an umpteenth time. Nope, I didn't mis-read it: all zeroes in the "TD" column among "Recent Tight End Leaders" from '01 to '05. Now I'm REALLY confused.

Mentioned this to someone in the studio here at Sun Sports, and he suggested that perhaps Henshaw wasn't lined up at tight end in the '03 Florida game.

Great. How the hell am I supposed to figure THAT out?

Turns out, I didn't have to. Instead, I found Florida State's 2004 Media Guide online, and read Henshaw's bio. According to that source, Henshaw's two 2003 touchdown catches, against Florida and Miami, were both from the tight end position. Which means, the table in this week's FSU game notes was incorrect, or just titled in such a way as to bumfuzzle the talking heads. Regardless, the stat I threw out on the air was incorrect.

Shoulda trusted my instincts. I knew it couldn't be right.

Still - four touchdown passes to a tight end in five-plus seasons? Are the FSU coaches aware that under current NCAA rules, the tight end is, in fact, an eligible receiver?

Bubba Franks had 12 touchdown catches by himself at Miami. Jeremy Shockey had ten, and he only played two years. Warren could have half that many by the end of his freshman season. He should, anyway - he's the Seminoles' most reliable receiver at the moment.

Given that Jeff Bowden took over as Florida State's offensive coordinator in February of 2001 - coinciding with the table in the game notes from this week - the knee-jerk reaction would be to assume that he just doesn't use tight ends as pass-catchers. Curious - and still online - I checked Florida State's history in the NFL Draft.

No, it's not the most accurate barometer of anything, but it's interesting: the last Florida State tight end to get drafted, in any round, was Lonnie Johnson in 1994 (2nd round to Buffalo). Before Johnson, there were only two more - Reggie Johnson to Denver in the 2nd round in '91, and Pat Carter to Detroit in the 2nd round in '88. That's three Florida State tight ends drafted to the NFL in the 24-year history of the modern draft.

For reference, Miami has sent 10 tight ends to the NFL Draft, starting with Glenn Dennison in 1984 (2nd round, Jets) and including Kevin Everett last year (3rd round, Buffalo). You know the names - Shockey, Franks, Winslow, et al. Florida, a school known more for wideouts than tight ends, has nonetheless sent five TE's into the draft, most recently Ben Troupe in 2004 (2nd round, Tennessee) and including two in one year: Chris Faulkner and Mike Mularkey in 1983. (Total number of Florida wide receivers drafted in 24 years: 21.)

Conclusion: it ain't just JEFF Bowden who avoids the tight end. But, on the bright side, maybe they're on to something with Brandon Warren.

Cleaning Up The Mess...

If I were a clever newspaper columnist like Bianchi, I would call this "Running Off At The Computer," as opposed to something mundane (yet accurate) like "here's a few completely unrelated things I wanted to blog about."

Not sure if anyone has responded to Shaquille O'Neal's comments about the new ball in play this season in the NBA - and not sure if anyone really cares but me - but he's spot-on correct.

In case you missed it: The Daddy don't like it.

"Feels like one of those cheap balls that you buy at the toy store, indoor-outdoor balls," O'Neal said. "I look for shooting percentages to be way down and turnovers to be way up, because when the ball gets wet you can't really control it. Whoever did that needs to be fired. It was terrible, a terrible decision."

What's the difference? According to Spalding, the new ball "is a microfiber composite with moisture management that provides superior grip and feel throughout the course of a game." In addition, it's constructed of two interlocking, cross-shaped panels - for an image, lock your hands together as if you're giving someone a boost to climb a wall - as opposed to the old version, which was comprised of eight interlocking leather panels stitched into a sphere.

What's the problem? It kinda sucks:



I tried out the new rock at the Magic's media day last week. First impression, one echoed by many players: it's tacky. As in grippy. As in, like The Diesel points out, a toy-store indoor-outdoor ball. Rubbery. I can just about palm it, and my hands are standard issue for a 5'9" rec-league player.

For what it's worth, NBA vice president Stu Jackson claimed in response to the Shaq Attaq that over the course of 100-odd D-League and summer-league games, the new ball produced better shooting percentages across the board - from three, from two, and from the line. Turnovers, he said, were even against the old ball.

He also mentioned that nobody was getting fired over it. Sorry, Shaq.

O'Neal thinks the new, grippier ball will produce lower shooting percentages and more turnovers, especially when it gets wet - which it will do when caressed by 330-pound centers after 40 minutes of game action. In my informal test - dribbling and shooting foul shots while wearing a wireless microphone - I could not replicate those conditions.

However, I did notice that the additional grip caused a lot of free throws to pull left and long. Too much adhesion in a ball can cause that, which is why, when I was working as an intern for the Magic back in the Jurassic Age, the morning pickup crew loved to sweet-talk Magic equipment manager Rodney "Sid" Powell into rolling out some well-worn NBA balls. There's something about the leather that compels one to shoot. This new ball doesn't generate the same vibe - not even close.

If anything, I think turnovers will go down, thanks to the increased tackiness. Guards and forwards with large hands should be afforded even more control over the ball than before. As for shooting, well, players adjust.

Magic rookie JJ Redick shrugged off the new rock when I asked him about it. "Still round," he said. Head coach Brian Hill noted the playground-style rubber feel. Don't be surprised if this turns into a New Coke episode, and the new NBA ball gets a quick and silent do-over after this season.

* * *

Can't believe that this didn't generate more of a response, but on last week's "Tailgate Overtime" show on Sun Sports, we responded to an e-mail from a viewer who had compiled his own personal list of the five greatest Gators, Seminoles, and Hurricanes ever to play football. The note was in response to UF's "Ring of Honor" ceremony prior to the Alabama game, wherein Jack Youngblood, Danny Wuerffel, Steve Spurrier, and Emmitt Smith had their names enshrined in a rather odd-looking font around the upper deck of the Swamp.

Naturally, I compiled a list. My only criteria: the player was great in college, not necessarily in the pros. In no particular order, here's what I wrote down:

Florida: To the four names listed above, I would add Wilber Marshall, Shane Matthews, John Reaves, Lomas Brown, Carlos Alvarez, Wes Chandler, Ray Criswell, and any number of wide receivers that played under Spurrier (Nintendo-level numbers for several of them).

Florida State: Deion Sanders (my vote for the best on this list), Charlie Ward, Chris Weinke, Warrick Dunn, Fred Biletnikoff, Rohn Stark (gotta spread the love to special teams), Derrick Brooks, Terrell Buckley, Peter Boulware.

Miami: The quarterback troika of Testaverde, Kosar, and Kelly, plus Ted Hendricks, Edgerrin James, Ray Lewis, Sean Taylor, Warren Sapp, Michael Irvin, Jerome Brown, Rubin Carter, George Mira, and Jim Otto.

Incomplete? Definitely. Additional thoughts are welcomed. You may see this topic again on a future show.

Oh, yeah: add Chris Doering, William Floyd, and Steve Walsh to my list. Because that's how we roll in the studio:

Lord Byron vs. The Striped One

I have been reminded that with his win at the WGC-Amex, Tiger Woods is up to six in a row, seemingly within striking distance of a mark that I have termed unassailable: Byron Nelson's 11 in a row in 1945. It may appear that Woods has a shot at Lord Byron.

He doesn't.

The tough part of making this argument is the fact that Woods plays tournament golf about once a month, in stark contrast to the lads of Nelson's era, who slogged it out week after week. During Nelson's record run in '45, he won his first five events in a 31-day span from March 8th (the Miami International Four-Ball) to April 8th (the Atlanta Iron Lung Championship). After a lengthy respite in May, Nelson was back on the horse for the summertime, taking a grand total of one week off from June 7th (Montreal Open) to August 4th (Canadian Open).

On the other hand, Tiger Woods played in only 16 of the first 43 sanctioned PGA Tour events this year. Nelson played (and won) five events in 31 days in 1945; Woods required eighteen days more than that just to GET to five events this season -- recording two wins, a T-9th, a T-20th, and a withdrawal.

The point of this is not to criticize Woods; he builds his schedule around majors, WGC events, and tournaments with sponsorship ties. Bully for him. The point, as stated above, is that it's hard to predict WHICH events will make up his next five, much less try to predict if he can win them. Of the five official events left on the schedule (as of October 4th), he's only a sure thing for the Tour Championship. Thus endeth 2006.

Turning to 2007: the Mercedes-Benz Championship in Hawaii is a given. He has never played the Sony Open or the Bob Hope. He's the two time defending champion at the I Don't Really Drive One But Their Name Is On My Bag Invitational at Torrey Pines. Check. Those are his next three events - '06 Tour Championship, '07 Mercedes, '07 Buick Invitational.

Phoenix Open? No appearances since 2001. Pebble Beach? Absent since 2002. Nissan Open? Only missed it once since turning pro. That will be the fourth event he plays from right now.

Assuming he wins all four of those events, guess which one he has to win to record his 11th consecutive victory: the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. Yes, he's won it twice, most recently in 2004. However, the million-dollar-plus top prize has also gone into the bank accounts of Geoff Ogilvy, David Toms, Kevin Sutherland, Steve Stricker, Darren Clarke (who beat The Striped One 4&3 in the 2000 final), and Jeff Maggert (beat Eldrick 2&1 in the quarters in '99). Tiger has played the WGC Match Play in each of the tournament's seven years of existence, bracketing his two wins with losses to luminaries like Nick O'Hern, Peter O'Malley, and Chad O'Campbell.

Match Play, kids. All bets are off.

To make this really interesting: assume that Woods wins his next five starts, tying Nelson's record (across two seasons, unlike Lord Byron's calendar-year run). In all likelihood, his 6th start, and his shot at 12 in a row, would be at Bay Hill in Orlando, an event he once captured for four straight years (2000-2003). However, his last three starts at Arnold's clambake went like this: T-20, T-23, T-46.

Long story short: 11 in a row is untouchable. Twelve in a row is damn near impossible. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.