Two Freaking Plays

On Saturday, October 14th, 2006, I turned to Brady Ackerman on the set of Sun Sports' live Geico Gator Postgame and said, "that play is going to keep Florida out of the BCS Championship Game."

I wish I could patent this stuff. I really do.

"That play" was Patrick Lee's 20-yard fumble return for a touchdown with no time on the clock that gave Auburn a 27-17 win over Florida at Jordan-Hare Stadium. "That play" gave Auburn a 10-point win instead of a 4-point win, numbers that can never be altered, numbers that human voters and computers (that are programmed by humans) faithfully scan to this day. One freaking play, leading to Florida's only loss of the season so far.

Actually, two freaking plays.

With two minutes and 58 seconds left in the game on that fateful Saturday night on the Plains, Florida trailed Auburn by a single point, 18-17. Auburn kicker John Vaughn - a senior, top-10 all-time at Auburn in field goal percentage, top-10 nationally in field goals made this season - had just missed a 46-yarder. Florida had the ball on its own 28, down by one, with 2:58 to go. Big Mo was wearing a Gator head.

Until the very next play, when Chris Leak gets picked off by Eric Brock. Auburn milks a good two minutes off the clock with three Brad Lester rushes, and Vaughn - who sure as hell ain't gonna miss again - doesn't miss, making a 40-yarder. 21-17, Auburn. By the time the Gators get the ball back after the ensuing kickoff, they've got 17 seconds to work with. Then comes the fumble.

To recap: 18-17 with 2:58 to play. By the time the clock reads zeroes, it's 27-17. Nine points in less than three minutes, all keyed by two plays.

Two freaking plays - both turnovers - are what's keeping Florida out of the BCS Championship Game.

Don't think so? Ask yourself this: how does a one-point road loss to Auburn compare to a 10-point road loss to Auburn? For that matter - and more to the point - how does it compare to Southern Cal's 2-point road loss to Oregon State?

Southern Cal lost a day game to the Beavers in Corvallis, where Oregon State has an all-time home winning percentage of 55%. Florida lost a night game at Auburn, where the Tigers have a home winning percentage of 75%. I'm telling you right now: were it not for two turnovers and those nine extra points, Florida would have an overwhelming case for a BCS title game berth.

Imagine how a human voter - or a computer (programmed by a human) - would weigh a one-point loss at Auburn against a two-point loss at Oregon State. Toss in the fact that Florida didn't allow an offensive touchdown against the Tigers - while the Trojans gave up 33 points to a team that barely cracks the top-50 nationally in total offense - and Florida's loss would trump Southern Cal's loss by a mile and a half. The blistering arguments of the last two weeks would never happen. Our inbox at tailgate@sunsportstv.com wouldn't be filled with detailed statistical breakdowns of Florida's schedule versus Southern Cal's schedule. Never happens. None of it. Because there's no way that any voter would consider a two-point loss at Oregon State more acceptable than a one-point loss at Auburn.

But it wasn't a one-point loss. It was a ten-point loss. Because of two freaking plays. The moment that Patrick Lee crossed the goal line under a dark Alabama sky on October 14th, Florida's national championship hopes were toast.

The caveat, of course, is the fact that this argument is based on one factor, and one factor only: quality of loss. That's the point that most Gator fans have made to us via e-mail, but in fairness, you have to consider the entire picture. Todd Wright of "Tailgate Overtime" fame has done just that with his excellent blog at the Sporting News site, so I'll save myself the trouble. This argument also completely ignores Michigan, whose only loss was a three-point barnburner at Ohio State, but the human element of the BCS process appears to be penalizing the Wolverines for three factors, only one of which the team can actually control:

1. They allowed Ohio State to score 42 points, or two field goals more than the Bucks' already lofty 36.3 ppg average;
2. Michigan's regular season is over, while Florida and USC play on (out of sight, out of mind);
and 3. Michigan had its shot at Ohio State once this season and blew it, which doesn't make a compelling case for a rematch.

Michigan has fallen out of the conversation because the human element of the BCS is relentlessly predictable. And on that note, I agree with Todd - if Florida wants to make plans for Glendale, it must crush Arkansas this weekend. Not "beat." Crush. If previous BCS reactions are any indication, a decisive win in the SEC Championship Game is Florida's best shot at BCS glory - that, plus some help from UCLA.

Otherwise, the Gators will be spectators when Ohio State faces off against Whoever on January 8th. There's no shame in that. After a six-year absence from the SEC title game, Florida fans should be happy just to have the opportunity to play for a conference title on Saturday.

Still - it has to sting, just a little, when you think back to two freaking plays. I knew it as soon as I saw it.