NBA Update

Is it too late to change my pick in the Eastern Conference, or too early?

Fellow hoophead Matt from the Orlando Magic Blog, the same guy who shamed me into writing a serious preview piece in the first place (as opposed to the fantasy league draft review that preceded it), respectfully disagreed with my assessment of the Chicago Bulls as the most loaded team in the East. His point was that the Bulls have zero presence in the middle (offensively speaking) with Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown, and therefore are vulnerable in the rock'em - sock'em atmosphere of the NBA Playoffs.

Upon further review, he's right. But here's my quandary: by that criteria, who else will contend in the East? It's not exactly an embarassment of riches at the five-spot. Atlanta is bringing Zaza Pachulia and Lorenzen Wright. Boston's depth chart at center reads Kendrick Perkins, Theo Ratliff, and Michael Olowokandi, for pete's sake.

Among Eastern Conference teams, I like the big-man combos in Cleveland (Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Anderson Varejao, who I reeeeeally wish the Magic had kept), Indiana (Harrington, O'Neal, and Jeff Foster), Philadelphia (Steven Hunter and Samuel Dalembert, the latter of whom should have a breakout season - my fantasy team depends on it), and Detroit (Sheed, Naz Mohammed, Dice, and the better-than-you-think Jason Maxiell). To this mix - and again, we're only talking about bigs here - I guess you have to add Orlando, with Dwight Howard, Tony Battie, and Darko Milicic. Seriously, is that rotation any worse than any of the teams listed above?

Okay, Cleveland looks better. Plus, they've got the Lebron kid, who I think might just do something in this league. Call me crazy.

On the topic of Florida teams - it was complete coincidence, but check out this passage from Bill Simmons' NBA preview missive regarding the defending champs from Miami:

"For this team to win 50-plus games, Wade needs to play between 42-45 minutes a night... and he's coming off a 100-game NBA season, a World Championships stint and about 730 hard fouls over the past 12 months. You really think Riley will be cracking the whip here?...This team is older than Al Davis. Alonzo and GP are on their last legs. 'Toine has bad knees. Shaq has accomplished everything he ever wanted and probably spent the last few months auditioning rap artists and reading movie scripts. They have no young players other than Udonis Haslem, no young legs to carry them on back-to-backs, and if that's not bad enough, everyone will be gunning for them as the defending champs."

Now, pearls of wisdom from my semi-serious NBA preview entry, which was written without seeing Simmons' column, I swear to Chris Paul:

"I was trying to figure out why I don't think Miami will repeat as NBA champions in 2007. My instincts centered on Dwyane Wade - the Heat's version of Jordan in terms of minutes, scoring load, and overall importance to the franchise - who has now played 108 full-length professional basketball games in the last calendar year. That's 75 regular-season games, 23 additional playoff games (during which he averaged a team-high 41 minutes a night), and nine more games at the FIBA World Championships in Japan, which, last time I checked, is a hell of a flight...He must be exhausted, right? No way he can carry the Heat again, not with Shaq a year older and that much more prone to missing chunks of the season - he missed 23 games last year, and has reached 70 games in a season only once in the last five years. Wade can't do it again, can he?"

Spooky, huh? Like I said, coincidence. Now watch the Heat win 62 games, with Dorell Wright winning Most Improved Player. The lesson, as always: we might all be idiots.

As for the Magic, I've watched them with great interest over the first week of the season, and while it appears that the Kumbaya vibe of their 16-6 finish to the '05-'06 season has carried over, so too have two distressing tendencies:

First, turnovers. Through the first four games of this season, the Magic led the league in coughing it up (20.75 turnovers per game) - and then added a masterpiece performance on Wednesday night, when they politely handed the basketball to Seattle 27 times and still won. Last season, Orlando turned the ball over 1240 times in 82 games, an average of just over 15 giveaways per night. Obviously, if Orlando's playoff hopes are legit, this is a trend that must die a painful death. I'm thinking that Brian Hill might want to call Urban Meyer for some tips on no-fumble drills. Something involving duct tape and big wooden paddles.

Second, perimeter defense. Matt Guokas warned us prior to the Philadelphia game last Friday that the Magic are vulnerable to the penetration dribble. Over the next four games, teams formed a conga line to the hoop against Orlando, with Allen Iverson, Joe Johnson, Antawn Jamison, and Ray Allen combining for 120 points - and those ain't all jump shots, people.

Dwight and Darko are shot-blockers. What Orlando lacks is an enforcer-type, a Danny Fortson or Etan Thomas who will move the pile and not give a crap who gets hurt in the process. A foul-burner. That's the answer once the opponent actually gets into the lane, anyway.

In order to kill this problem at the source, the Magic need guards who can toss a blanket over a ball-handler, and they don't have many. Dooling tries. Nelson and Arroyo, in my eyes, have always been a half-step slow up top (without the ball, anyway). At the moment, there's little resistance from the Magic when a team tries to pound it down the middle, both at the beginning and the end of the attempt. That, too, has to change.

Put some shoulder pads on Battie or Outlaw. Get Nelson, Arroyo, and Dooling fitted for those parachute thingys and have them run a few sprints. Make teams pay for targeting the soft underbelly. That's how you keep the playoff buzz alive.