Dream Big For 2007

Lord knows, I love theories. And I worked up a doozy this week.

For the 1991-92 NBA season, Michael Jordan averaged 30 points, 6 assists, and 6 rebounds over the course of 80 games. During the summer of 1992, MJ engaged in some extracurricular activity known as the Dream Team. His Olympic experience in Barcelona consisted of eight games - all starts - during which he averaged 14.9 points and a team-low (among starters) 45% field goal percentage.

Jordan's gold medal performance followed his second NBA championship, in 1992. My theory was that his numbers would drop for the '92-'93 season, after playing all those extra postseason games and traveling to Europe for even more basketball.

Ummm, no. 1992-93: 32.6 points per game, equivalent numbers for assists and rebounds. And another NBA championship. So much for the theory.

I created this theory because I was trying to figure out why I don't think Miami will repeat as NBA champions in 2007. My instincts centered on Dwyane Wade - the Heat's version of Jordan in terms of minutes, scoring load, and overall importance to the franchise - who has now played 108 full-length professional basketball games in the last calendar year. That's 75 regular-season games, 23 additional playoff games (during which he averaged a team-high 41 minutes a night), and nine more games at the FIBA World Championships in Japan, which, last time I checked, is a hell of a flight.

He must be exhausted, right? No way he can carry the Heat again, not with Shaq a year older and that much more prone to missing chunks of the season - he missed 23 games last year, and has reached 70 games in a season only once in the last five years. Wade can't do it again, can he?

Well, Jordan did.

Try another angle: MJ was 29 years old in the summer of '92, with eight good years of NBA experience already under his belt. Conversely, Wade won his first NBA title last year at the age of 24, with just three years of pro experience. Maybe Jordan, with five more years of knowledge, just knew how to pace himself back in '92. Which Dream Team member from that summer was closest to Wade in terms of age and experience? And did HIS numbers drop during the '92-'93 season?

Taking the 22-year-old Christian Laettner out of the equation - he had yet to play an NBA game when he was selected to ride the bench in Barcelona - the closest match to Wade was 27-year-old David Robinson. Scottie Pippen was closer to Wade in age that summer (26), but thanks to Robinson's Navy commitment, The Admiral had only played three NBA seasons prior to his USA Basketball call-up - just like Wade.

Robinson, before the Dream Team: 68 games, 37 minutes per game, 23 points and 12 rebounds per game in '91-'92.

Robinson, AFTER the Dream Team: 82 games, 39 minutes per game, 23 points and 11 rebounds per game in '92-'93. He didn't win a championship in '93, but the Bulls did - with Pippen.

Sometimes, you just gotta make the call. If history is any indication, the Tired Wade Theory is dead.

However, since I received an e-mail after I blogged about my NBA fantasy draft, one that gently chided me for not providing an honest league preview, I still need to make a pick. And even though Wade appears to be just fine, thank you, I'm not sold on Miami to repeat.

San Antonio. That's my pick.

For one thing, even though I have just blown the "international summer basketball" clause out of the water, I like the fact that Tim Duncan didn't do anything this summer - and still managed to show up for camp in the best shape of his life, according to his head coach. I like what I'm seeing from Tony Parker, who has been remarkably durable for a guy that throws himself into traffic - only 4 games missed over the last two seasons, even as his scoring has risen. The Spurs are long in the tooth, with veterans like Robert Horry, Brent Barry, and Bruce Bowen playing significant minutes, but that's not all that different from Miami's formula last season with Shaq, Antoine Walker, and Gary Payton.

Phoenix will win its 50-plus. Utah will bounce back as long as Boozer and Kirilenko can stay healthy. The Clippers will be better. Dallas is still Dallas. I just like San Antonio, is all.

In the east? I think Chicago is loaded. My feelings on Kirk Hinrich have already been expressed. Throw in Duhon, Gordon, Deng, and Nocioni - all approaching their third NBA season - with the veteran presence of Ben Wallace and PJ Brown, and I have a hard time imagining an Eastern Conference team that can match up. Cleveland will challenge as long as Lebron draws breath, Washington will be interesting, and we probably shouldn't ignore Detroit, but the Bulls have a perfect storm of rising talent, depth, and experience.

Big question for Sun Sports viewers in central Florida: where does Orlando fit in?

Or, put another way: are there eight teams in the East that are clearly better than the Magic?

I say no. There are three: Chicago, Miami, and Cleveland. Note that I wrote clearly better. Washington, Indiana, Detroit, and New Jersey could be better. But not "obviously" so. Those seven teams have generally been picked ahead of Orlando in the conference, with the occasional vote for a Boston or Milwaukee as a playoff team, but I don't see a vast gap in potential between Orlando and anybody on that list.

What decides it? Health is always a factor. If Dwight Howard goes down for any length of time, all bets are off. If Grant Hill plays a full season, it's pure gravy. I'd sure like to see what JJ Redick can do, one of these days.

Player development will be critical. Howard, Darko Milicic, Jameer Nelson, Trevor Ariza, Keith Bogans, Travis Diener, Redick - half the Magic roster has less than four seasons of NBA experience. Will guys like Keyon Dooling, Hedo Turkoglu, Tony Battie, Bo Outlaw, and Hill - some of the most personable and professional men in the game today - be able to coax the best from the young bucks? The Magic cornered the market on "nice guys" a long time ago, and that's not such a bad thing - you'd be hard-pressed to find any potential locker-room cancers on this roster. But now those pleasant pros need to deliver, and bring the youngsters along in the process.

I like Chicago to win the conference based on depth. I like Orlando to reach the playoffs for the same reason. As my guy Bianchi correctly states, there are no excuses anymore. If this team doesn't at least contend for home court in the 2007 NBA Playoffs, this will be a season of wasted opportunity.

So there you go. I love this game.