Lord Byron vs. The Striped One

I have been reminded that with his win at the WGC-Amex, Tiger Woods is up to six in a row, seemingly within striking distance of a mark that I have termed unassailable: Byron Nelson's 11 in a row in 1945. It may appear that Woods has a shot at Lord Byron.

He doesn't.

The tough part of making this argument is the fact that Woods plays tournament golf about once a month, in stark contrast to the lads of Nelson's era, who slogged it out week after week. During Nelson's record run in '45, he won his first five events in a 31-day span from March 8th (the Miami International Four-Ball) to April 8th (the Atlanta Iron Lung Championship). After a lengthy respite in May, Nelson was back on the horse for the summertime, taking a grand total of one week off from June 7th (Montreal Open) to August 4th (Canadian Open).

On the other hand, Tiger Woods played in only 16 of the first 43 sanctioned PGA Tour events this year. Nelson played (and won) five events in 31 days in 1945; Woods required eighteen days more than that just to GET to five events this season -- recording two wins, a T-9th, a T-20th, and a withdrawal.

The point of this is not to criticize Woods; he builds his schedule around majors, WGC events, and tournaments with sponsorship ties. Bully for him. The point, as stated above, is that it's hard to predict WHICH events will make up his next five, much less try to predict if he can win them. Of the five official events left on the schedule (as of October 4th), he's only a sure thing for the Tour Championship. Thus endeth 2006.

Turning to 2007: the Mercedes-Benz Championship in Hawaii is a given. He has never played the Sony Open or the Bob Hope. He's the two time defending champion at the I Don't Really Drive One But Their Name Is On My Bag Invitational at Torrey Pines. Check. Those are his next three events - '06 Tour Championship, '07 Mercedes, '07 Buick Invitational.

Phoenix Open? No appearances since 2001. Pebble Beach? Absent since 2002. Nissan Open? Only missed it once since turning pro. That will be the fourth event he plays from right now.

Assuming he wins all four of those events, guess which one he has to win to record his 11th consecutive victory: the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. Yes, he's won it twice, most recently in 2004. However, the million-dollar-plus top prize has also gone into the bank accounts of Geoff Ogilvy, David Toms, Kevin Sutherland, Steve Stricker, Darren Clarke (who beat The Striped One 4&3 in the 2000 final), and Jeff Maggert (beat Eldrick 2&1 in the quarters in '99). Tiger has played the WGC Match Play in each of the tournament's seven years of existence, bracketing his two wins with losses to luminaries like Nick O'Hern, Peter O'Malley, and Chad O'Campbell.

Match Play, kids. All bets are off.

To make this really interesting: assume that Woods wins his next five starts, tying Nelson's record (across two seasons, unlike Lord Byron's calendar-year run). In all likelihood, his 6th start, and his shot at 12 in a row, would be at Bay Hill in Orlando, an event he once captured for four straight years (2000-2003). However, his last three starts at Arnold's clambake went like this: T-20, T-23, T-46.

Long story short: 11 in a row is untouchable. Twelve in a row is damn near impossible. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.