Just Run The Numbers

I love statistics. My old friend Dave Revsine loves them too. Numbers are comforting; they provide answers. Even better, they end arguments.

When I get an e-mail from a disgruntled Gator fan complaining about Florida's defense - as was the case last week - I can quickly point out that entering the Auburn game, UF had the top scoring defense and rush defense in the SEC. Conference opponents were averaging 2.0 yards per carry against Florida this season, and the Gators had yet to allow a touchdown in a fourth quarter.

See? Argument over. Florida's defense is good.

But sometimes, numbers betray me. Consider: Florida has won 8 of their last 9 meetings with Auburn. The Gators' all-time record at Jordan-Hare Stadium is 8-24-1. Both of those statements are true (flashback to SAT prep course; getting dizzy).

On paper, it seems like there's no way Florida could lose this game. Kenny Irons rushes for 102 yards per game? Florida's rush defense only allows 56.8. Courtney Taylor and Rod Smith account for 44 percent of Auburn's receptions? Florida has four players with at least one interception, and leads the SEC with 11 picks overall - and now they know who to cover. Auburn allows only 11 points per game? Florida averages 29 - and Arkansas, a team that puts up only 21 a game (85th in the country), scored 27 against the Tigers last week.

Slam dunk, right? Wrong. Not when the game is at Auburn, at night, coming as it does three games into a four-game SEC crucible the likes of which Florida has never experienced. Not when the Tigers are coming off the crushing loss to Arkansas, a game in which their offensive line was emasculated for 5 sacks (now 18 sacks allowed this season, 2nd-most in the SEC - dammit, another stat. Sorry).

Any guess is just that - a guess. Call this the first true toss-up of Florida's season.

I do know this: Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has to game-plan for three Florida quarterbacks. Yes, three.

There's Chris Leak, Passer. All-time leader at Florida in attempts and completions, now 1200 yards away from securing Saint Danny's holy grail in Gainesville.

There's Tim Tebow, Runner. Second-leading rusher on the Florida roster, his 5.6 yards per carry good for 4th in the nation among quarterbacks - and to appreciate that stat, consider that only 17 quarterbacks out of 119 Division I programs have a positive yards-per-carry average at all.

And now, there's Tim Tebow, Passer. Two TD passes last week against LSU, one coming straight out of Knute Rockne's 1932 game plan for the big matchup with Fordham. After The Jump Pass (and mark my words, it will be capitalized among Gator fans for many years to come), Tebow's second TD pass was a direct result of his resume' as Tim Tebow, Runner: one hard step forward, freezing the linebackers - who clearly had the fear of God thrown into them by Les Miles during the film sessions to look for Tebow to run - and one easy step back to fire a perfectly acceptable college football pass to Louis Murphy, who might never be that wide open again for the rest of his life.

One opponent, three quarterbacks. That's why defensive coordinators get paid the big bucks.

Speaking of which - Randy Shannon gets to game-plan against his own kid this weekend as Miami faces Florida International University.

Young Xavier spends most post-football Sundays hanging out at his dad's office at UM. Father-son time and all that. This week was different, however - Xavier, a former walk-on, has risen to the starting center position at FIU, meaning that Randy, as Miami's defensive coordinator, was scheming methods of knocking his son out of his cleats.

Xavier: "Hey, dad, whatcha workin' on?"

Randy (quickly hitting ctrl-alt-del on the keyboard): "Hey, Tiger! Oh, umm...nothing, really. How was school?"

Xavier: "You working on us for next week?"

Randy (light bulb over head): "Umm...yeah! Yes, I am, in fact. We're kicking around some new ideas for Saturday. Want to hear them?"

Xavier (suspiciously): "You sure?"

Randy (big smile): "Of course. You're my guy, right? No worries. Yeah, we think we're gonna go with the old 2-1-8 alignment, and maybe have the defensive backs wear their helmets backwards. Try to confuse that QB of yours. Also, we're enforcing a strict no-contact policy, and I'm really focusing on teaching the linebackers how to tackle with only their left arms. Should be a great game. Run along, now."

In truth, Dad could photocopy the Miami game plan for Saturday and slip it under Xavier's pillow, and it wouldn't make much difference. The underdog in me - the guy who bleats mindlessly about a Big Five - would love to see Miami-FIU develop into a real series, a city rivalry along the lines of USC-UCLA or TCU-SMU. And it could happen. Xavier Shannon won't be there to see it - and in all likelihood, neither will Randy - but it could happen.

Oh, yeah - and Florida State is playing Duke. Here's everything you have to know about this historic matchup: Duke is 0-14 against Florida State in ACC play, giving up 44 points or more in 13 of those 14 games. This season, the Blue Devils have the worst scoring offense in Division I football: five points per game. And they've been shut out in three of their first five games this season, including their season opener - against I-AA Richmond.

Okay, sometimes the numbers don't lie.