The Big Three (Plus Two)

You're killing me here, fellas.

See, I had this theory. I called it The Big Five. And this theory, which was based on ardent research and just a hint of optimism, postulated that there would come a day - in my lifetime - when UCF and USF would be on par with the so-called "Big Three" of Florida, Florida State, and Miami. God, it was a great theory.

Then I watched USF barely tread water on their home field in beating Florida International by a single point, whilst UCF simultaneously laid a one-ton egg at the Swamp. As Brady Ackerman told me on the Sun Sports set before our Seminole and Gator Postgame shows, "the ol' Big Five theory took a hit today, huh?"

Yes, it did. You're killing me, Bulls and Knights. Just killing me.

The theory is not dead (it's only mostly dead, says Miracle Max). It's not dead because the rationale is unchanged: UCF and USF sit in the heart of Florida's most fertile recruiting grounds. They are huge schools - 45,000 and 41,000 students, respectively, compared to 48,000 for Florida, 37,000 for Florida State, and 15,000 for Miami. The math alone would compel one to believe that at some point, UCF and USF would be able to draw enough athletes to compete with the Big Three on the football field. Couple players with facilities - an investment that both South Florida and the University of Central Florida have committed to make - and I still like that theory.

However, the snarky among us seized upon Saturday's events - particularly UCF's non-appearance at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - to declare that The Big Five was officially pushing up daisies. Of course, I speak of the King of Snark himself, my friend Mike Bianchi, who took a veiled shot at me in his Sunday morning column:

"There has been some silly talk over the past few months about how the state of Florida is on the verge of becoming the "Big Five," with UCF and USF ready to join the "Big Three" of Miami, Florida and Florida State as nationally elite programs. After Saturday, such talk seems about a decade premature."

Gee, wonder where he got that. Mike, could you at least put my name on the theory before crumpling it up and tossing it into the wastebasket?

El Snarko was referring to the UF-UCF game, but I'm not letting USF off the hook, either. A few South Florida fans have e-mailed me in past months insisting that the Bulls are miles ahead of the Golden Knights in football development, citing USF's membership in the Big East - a BCS league - as Exhibit A. Look, if being a member of a BCS league is such a freaking advantage, USF should be wiping the grass with Sun Belt teams like Florida International. Yet, FIU played the Bulls to a standstill on Saturday. For that matter, BCS league membership hasn't exactly rocketed Duke, Wake Forest, or Vanderbilt into the upper echelon, and those three programs have played a combined 300-plus seasons of college football. The "BCS/no BCS" argument has been revoked until further notice.

BCS membership alone isn't enough to vault a team to prominence, nor is a lack of BCS access a stake through the heart. All that matters is the winning. Wins like USF's historic drubbing of Louisville last year, or UCF's victory over Alabama in 2000. The Golden Knights had a chance to claim another program-changing victory this weekend, and it weren't even close.

Which brings me back to The Snarkanator, M. Bianchi, and his Sunday column:

"Here's the thing UCF fans need to understand. There are a dozen teams out there who believe they are going to become the next big-time football program. UCF believes it. USF believes it. Fresno State and Boise State believe it. And after Saturday's near-upset of Florida State, Troy believes it, too.

The point is this: You don't become big time just by hiring George O'Leary and building a football stadium. It takes years, decades, sometimes generations to get to where Florida is."

He's right - almost. You get to where Florida is - or Florida State, or Miami - by winning. Which, Mikey, Fresno State and Boise State have done:

NCAA DIVISION I FOOTBALL WINS LEADERS
2001-2005 (five seasons)

1. Texas (56)
2. Oklahoma (55)
3. Southern Cal (54)
T4. Miami (53)
T4. Boise State (53)
6. Georgia (52)
7. LSU (51)
8. Ohio State (50)
T9. Louisville (47)
T9. Virginia Tech (47)
T11. Fresno State (46)
T11. Auburn (46)
T13. Iowa (45)
T13. Toledo (45)
T15. Florida State (44)
T15. Michigan (44)
T15. Tennessee (44)
T18. Boston College (43)
T18. Bowling Green (43)
T18. TCU (43)
T21. Florida (42)
T21. Miami-Ohio (42)
T21. Utah (42)

I've bolded the Big Three, as well as eight other programs that I'll bet Sir Snarkalot never would have guessed to be in the top twenty in D-I wins since the turn of the century.

This list, above all other arguments, is why I remain committed to a Big Five. With all due respect to the lovely hamlets of Boise, Louisville, Fresno, Chestnut Hill, Bowling Green, Fort Worth, Oxford, and Salt Lake City, there's nothing they've got that Tampa and Orlando don't - and none of those other cities are chest-deep in the kind of high school talent that Florida produces every year. There's no reason why USF or UCF couldn't join this list five years from now, if the commitment from both administrations continues on its present course (read: spending).

Last point: Mike's line about "years, decades, sometimes generations to get to where Florida is" reminds me of another criticism of the "Big Five," one that I've seen in print and heard in person: schools like UCF and USF don't have the history and tradition of schools like Florida State, Miami, and Florida.

Remind me again how many touchdowns History scored last year? How many interceptions did Tradition pull down? Have they ever been out clubbing with Curt Schilling's pals Mystique and Aura?

Today's high school seniors were 13 years old the last time Miami won a national title. They were 11 years old the last time Florida State won it; when the Gators last claimed the national championship, these seniors were in second grade. The high school recruiting class of 2011 - five years from now - are currently 7th-graders. Nostalgia is great tailgate conversation for alumni, but if today's kids like what they see from USF and UCF over these next five years, History and Tradition may not count for much.

The only thing that can make The Big Five a reality is winning. And when UCF and USF meet at the Citrus Bowl this Saturday, both will have plenty of motivation to do just that.

As for the rest of the season - help me out, fellas. I'm getting creamed over here.