Caught Stealing

Got a note from a reader regarding my Too Many Questions post, in which I reaffirmed by belief that by the time 2010 rolls around, Jameer Nelson of the Orlando Magic will be regarded as "the draft-day steal of the decade." That column appeared on the old "Sunshine Network" website, pre-Sun Sports, but was also referenced here.

Anyway, the anonymous reader argued that San Antonio's Manu Ginobili, "the second to last pick in the draft," was a much bigger steal than Nelson, adding that "you're not gonna find many GM's who would rather have Nelson than Manu."

He's right - right now. However, Ginobili is nearing 30 years old and already has twelve seasons of professional basketball mileage on his body (yes, 12). Nelson just turned 24. If you were building a team for today AND tomorrow, is Ginobili such an obvious choice? What if I told you that this season, Nelson has a better shooting percentage, better three-point percentage, better free-throw percentage, and more assists per game than Ginobili, while scoring only one fewer point per contest?

Never mind that. As a card-carrying draftnik, I was curious about Ginobili vs. Nelson as "draft-day steals."

Even though Ginobili debuted with San Antonio in 2002, he was actually drafted in 1999 (second round, 57th overall, the "second-to-last pick," sure enough). He spent three more years playing in Italy before coming stateside. Point being, he wasn't drafted in THIS decade, so I'm sticking with my argument on Nelson. I'm all about technicalities.

Ginobili played eight professional seasons of basketball in Argentina and Italy before he ever wore a Spurs uniform. Nelson, on the other hand, was the Consensus National Player of the Year at St. Joseph's, a first-team All-American, the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, and finished as St. Joe's all-time leader in points, assists, and steals - and dropped to 20th in the 2004 NBA Draft because most so-called "draft experts" thought he was too short for the NBA.

Ginobili was a flyer, but a relatively safe gamble. Most second-round picks don't even make an NBA roster, much less become starters, or stars. San Antonio had nothing to lose by taking him 57th - and obviously, that low-risk roll of the dice paid huge dividends.

On the flip side, given the Magic's recent history of first-round picks - see Reece Gaines, Ryan Humphrey, Steven Hunter, Jeryl Sasser, Courtney Alexander - they had everything to lose by flying in the face of conventional wisdom and trading with Denver to get Nelson at 20.

Conclusion: Ginobili may (arguably) be the better player, but Nelson is the bigger steal.

Still curious, I sifted through the wonderful NBADraft.net website to compile a list of true "steals" from this decade. My list is limited to draft picks from 2000 through 2005 - no undrafted free agents allowed (sorry, Udonis Haslem), and no Ginobilis (players drafted prior to 2000 who debuted later). It's an interesting list.

2000

Only one glaring act of larceny in this draft: Milwaukee gets Michael Redd in the second round, 43rd overall. A 2004 All-Star, Redd signed the most lucrative contract in Bucks history last summer at six years, $91 million. Among the second-rounders drafted ahead of Redd: Dan Langhi, Khalid El-Amin, and Hanno Mottola. Ouch, babe.

2001

Lots of gems here. Richard Jefferson slides to the Rockets at 13 before being dealt to New Jersey that summer in a deal that brought Eddie Griffin to Houston. Again, ouch. Zach Randolph goes to Portland at 19, Tony Parker to San Antonio with the final pick of the first round. But the capper comes in the second round: Gilbert Arenas to Golden State, 31st overall. Career numbers: 21 ppg, 5 apg, 4 rpg. Currently 4th in the league in scoring at 29 per.

2002

How about Amare Stoudemire going 9th to Phoenix? Can a lottery pick be considered a steal? Again, we find the obvious theft in the second round: Carlos Boozer 35th overall to Cleveland. Career numbers of 13.7 points and nine rebounds per game got him six years and $68 million from Utah in 2004.

2003

My thoughts on Dwyane Wade are well-known. If the 2003 draft were replayed tomorrow, Wade goes second, behind LeBron and barely ahead of Chris Bosh. Josh Howard to Dallas with the final pick of the first round is generally regarded as the steal of the '03 draft, but what about Kyle Korver going 51st? Raise your hand if you believed he would stick this long.

2004

Nelson at 20, got it. Orlando also took Anderson Varejao at 31, and probably should have kept him. And what about Dwight Howard going first overall? Can we consider that a "steal," based on Howard jumping directly from a tiny high school, the perception of Emeka Okefor at the time as the "best big man in college basketball," and Okefor's injury history since? Remember how much wringing of hands took place when Orlando was studying those two players? Is there ANY doubt now?

2005

Way too early to judge, but I include the '05 draft only to point out that Ryan Gomes and Orien Greene, two players taken in the middle of the second round, have made a combined 24 starts for the Boston Celtics this season. Lesson: don't change the channel on draft day once David Stern leaves the podium, because you may be cheering for those second-rounders come January.

So who's the biggest draft-day steal of the decade so far? I'll give you Redd, Arenas, and Wade, with the obvious caveat on Wade - it's hard to be considered a "steal" when drafted in the top five. If Wade wins the MVP award this season, will Kiki Vandeweghe greet Carmelo Anthony at Denver's next practice with nothing more than a wistful sigh?

As for Nelson - I still like my chances. Ask me again in 2010.