Ring It In
You know those New Year's Resolutions, that list you draw up after two or nine glasses of champagne, wherein you pledge to drop ten pounds, publish a novel, learn how to play guitar, and adopt an orphan from Serbia? I have the same problem with those lists as I do with "Year In Review" pieces that make predictions - no accountability. Where are those authors twelve months later? Do they ever grade themselves?
I do. Why? Because I'm like that. You want payoff, I bring payoff.
Last December, on the old Sunshine Network website, I offered my Fearless Predictions for 2005. Here are some of the bold visions I laid out in the first week of '05, complete with harsh grading for accuracy:
"The New York Yankees will not win the World Series. Hardly going out on a limb here - it's a one-in-thirty chance - but let's just take a deep breath. The signing of Randy Johnson guarantees them absolutely nothing. All we know is, the Yankees just committed $48 million dollars to a player with no cartilege in his right knee, who will be 43 years old at the end of his contract."
Remember, this was written in January of 2005, when the baseball world was still atwitter over the Big Unit moving to New York. Johnson went 17-8 with 211 strikeouts. The Unit turned 42 in September and made over $15 million last season. And the White Sox won the World Series. Score: 1-0, Whitster.
"Neither the Phoenix Suns nor the Seattle Sonics will win the NBA title, but the Miami Heat just might. Check back with me on that one. Shaq will earn his second MVP award, Amare Stoudemire will edge Dwyane Wade for Most Improved Player (and Amare better give half the trophy to Steve Nash), and Emeka Okefor will beat out Ben Gordon and Dwight Howard for Rookie of the Year."
Miami came within two minutes and one Dwyane Wade hamstring of reaching the NBA Finals. Shaq lost the MVP vote to Nash, who I at least credited with leading the renaissance in Phoenix. Okefor was indeed the Rookie of the Year, but Bobby Simmons was named Most Improved. Giving myself half a point for putting Miami that close to the Finals, score that one 1.5 right, 2 wrong.
"Tiger Woods will win the Masters, Retief Goosen will defend his title at the U.S. Open, Sergio Garcia will break through at the PGA Championship, and somebody out of left field - I'm thinking a Craig Parry or Zach Johnson-type - will win the British."
Let's see - Tiger won the Masters, Michael Campbell took the U.S. Open, Mickelson won the PGA, and Tiger doubled his pleasure at the British. One up and three down. Starting to lose steam here.
"Florida, FSU, and Miami will lose a total of five football games between them. UCF will win more than two but less than five. USF will finally get a bowl bid. FAMU and Bethune-Cookman will once again go to overtime in the Florida Classic."
Okay, so the Big Three lost nine games, not five. UCF won more than two, and more than five. In my defense, nobody foresaw either scenario. South Florida did indeed get the bowl bid, and the FAMU-BCC matchup at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando did, in fact, go to overtime. Give me three wins and 2 losses there (I count "more than 2 wins" for UCF as correct, and "less than five" as incorrect).
"In college hoops, Florida's men will not make the NCAA Tournament, but Florida's women will. Miami will finish its inaugural ACC season with a .500 record. Florida State won't. The best record among Florida's division one men's basketball teams will belong to UCF, the program that has won more games over the last two years than any other D-I team in the state. They will not win the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament, however."
I flipped the Gators - Florida's men reached the Dance, but the women did not. Miami finished its first ACC season with a losing record, but barely (and they had every chance to beat Duke late in the year and keep hope alive for a .500 ACC season - I listened to Joe Zagacki's call of that game in my rental car during a business trip to South Florida, pounding my dashboard all the way up the Turnpike). Florida State also finished with a losing record in the conference - my first win here. Florida won 24 games last season, compared to 16 for Miami, 12 for the Seminoles, and 24 for the Golden Knights of UCF, who proved me wrong by beating Gardner-Webb for the A-Sun Conference title. Giving myself a half-point for UCF's tie with Florida in total wins, that's 1.5 up and four down. Yuck.
"There won't be any hockey this season for the Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning, or anyone else in the NHL. They will, however, start a new season in the fall of 2005, with a salary cap, and without a few dozen players who elect to stay in Europe."
Ka-ching. Add one to the "W" column.
Adding it up, that's 9 correct predictions and 11 incorrect. Honestly, why do I bother? I could flip a coin and get the same results. Needless to say, past history is no indication of future success, so here we go for 2006:
1. The Orlando Magic will reach the playoffs, aided by a nose dive from Indiana, Philadelphia, and/or Washington. Miami will make it as well, but won't get past the second round. Dwight Howard will not win Most Improved Player - they'll give that to Boris Diaw, Mehmet Okur, or Gilbert Arenas - but Howard will capture the NBA rebounding title, thanks in no small part to the inevitable Marcus Camby knee or shoulder injury. Chris Paul wins Rookie of the Year in a runaway. Flip Saunders wins Coach of the Year, but the Pistons lose to San Antonio in the NBA Finals.
2. Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods each win another major this year. Sergio is left out, again. Chris DiMarco wins something, somewhere. Of the 32 players who earned their cards at Q-School this fall, the best shot at a win in 2006 comes from Frank Lickliter, or maybe Bill Haas.
3. The football Gators will go 10-1 next season, losing either at Auburn on October 14th or at Florida State on November 25th. The UCF game in Gainesville will be much closer than Gator fans would like. Florida State's biggest challenge will be Florida or Miami - win one, lose one. Miami will win 9 games and again be forced to defend Larry Coker, which is ridiculous. UCF and USF will again obtain bowl bids, and you'll all be calling them the "Big Five" by this time next year. Remember where you heard it first. Florida International or Florida Atlantic will record a winning season, but not both. Bethune-Cookman and FAMU will go triple-overtime, and the game will be decided by a blocked field goal attempt returned for a touchdown. Sure, it's preposterous, but given their recent history, don't bet against me.
4. In college hoops, the Florida men will become the next national media darlings, reaching the Sweet Sixteen and prompting dozens of comparisons to both their own Final Four team from 1994 and Billy Donovan's 1987 Providence Friars. UCF will have a down year, failing to reach their conference final, while Matt Doherty's FAU squad will sneak up on somebody - I'm looking hard at the Gardner-Webb game on January 15th. Watch for the FSU women to make the most noise in the postseason, skating into the NCAA tournament and shocking a favorite in the first round.
5. Having already disposed of the freaks from Harvard in the ECAC tournament, the Cornell hockey team will reach the Frozen Four in Milwaukee in April, where they will beat Minnesota and Boston College to claim the national championship. That one is for me, and only for me. Don't bother to argue. You want a drought? Cornell's last hockey title was 1970, when the Big Red capped a perfect 29-0 season with their second, and last, national title. The Red Sox and White Sox have had theirs, and Lord Stanley's Cup currently resides in Tampa. It's my turn, dammit.
Win or lose, of course, you know I'll own up to it twelve months from now. Happy New Year from all of us at Sun Sports.
