The NBA Votes Are In

Fascinating stuff in the Inbox this week regarding the NBA.

For the fourth year in a row, the league conducted a poll of all 30 NBA general managers, asking for their opinions and predictions for the upcoming season. Since I am, in the words of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, one of the 17 remaining NBA fans on Earth, this was a must-read. Each GM responded anonymously, so you have to think they really mean it.

The thirty NBA general managers have selected San Antonio and Miami as the 2006 conference champions. Miami got 73 percent of the Eastern vote, with Detroit and Indiana trailing far behind, but the Spurs earned a whopping 96 percent of the vote in the West. Oddly, when asked who was going to win the '96 Finals, 77 percent took San Antonio, 15 percent took Miami, and the remaining votes went to Detroit and Minnesota -- two teams that nobody picked to win their respective conferences. Umm, was this a trick question?

By division: New Jersey is the favorite to win the Atlantic (92%), Indiana a less prohibitive favorite in the Central (58% to Detroit's 39%), and Miami got every vote in the Southeast. Sorry, Magic fans.

San Antonio got all the votes for the Southwest, Denver took 65 percent of the Northwest (with Minnesota second at 23%, yet some GM out there thinks they're gonna win it all), and Phoenix gets 81 percent of the vote for the Pacific.

Most fascinating, however, were the questions posed about individual players and coaches, the answers to which provide insight into how GM's think. Tim Duncan had four times as many votes for 2006 MVP as did Shaquille O'Neal, yet when asked "Which player forces opposing coaches to make the most adjustments," Shaq outdistanced Duncan by the same 4-1 margin.

Lesson: until he decides otherwise, the game on the floor still goes through and around The Diesel.

Given O'Neal's age, however, he was a distant third to Duncan and Lebron James in the category of "player you would sign right now if starting a franchise." Worth noting that Miami's Dwyane Wade also received votes here, as did central Florida's own Amare Stoudemire. My answer? Wade, hands down. Young, personable, gets along with coaches and teammates, plays both ends, sells tickets. And did I mention young?

I loved this question: "Which player is most likely to have a breakout season?" Orlando's Dwight Howard, with 46 percent of the vote, was the runaway favorite in a category that prompted twelve different answers (including, again, Wade).

The GM's best players, by position, with percentage of their votes:

PG Steve Nash (68%)
SG Kobe Bryant (56%)
SF Tracy McGrady (48%, with Lebron getting 40%)
PF Duncan (78%)
C Shaq (84%)

Miami, Cleveland, and San Antonio were deemed the franchises that made the best offseason moves, with Larry Hughes to the Cavs cited as the acquisition that will make the biggest impact. However, Golden State is foreseen as the squad that will improve the most.

Thirty-eight percent of the GM's in the NBA called "Joe Johnson to Atlanta" the most surprising move of the offseason, which is their polite way of saying "I cannot BELIEVE how much the Hawks paid to get that kid." Antoine Walker to Miami was second in that category, which translates to "if it ain't broke, don't fix it - and especially not with a guy who jacks up shots like it's his last day on Earth while Shaq and Wade stare daggers through his butt."

Larry Brown stepping down as head coach in Detroit received votes for both the most surprising and least surprising move of the summer, which proves that Brown has equal numbers of supporters and detractors in this league. And by the way, Brown was at the top of the list in just about every question having anything to do with coaching.

Andrew Bogut edged Chris Paul in Rookie of the Year predictions, but it's Marvin Williams whom GM's consider to be "the best [current rookie] player in five years."

Ben Wallace was voted the best defensive player in the league and best interior defender in the league, and also edged out Amare Stoudemire as best offensive rebounder. This surprised me a little, but then I saw the truth in it: Wallace is a sublime offensive rebounder in much the same way that Dennis Rodman once mastered that skill. Thing is, neither Wallace nor Rodman ever looked for their own offense - in fact, Wallace has borrowed from the Worm's playbook, in that Big Ben will often snag an offensive board and then walk the ball out to the perimeter and hand it off to a guard, much as Rodman once did. When you're not getting your points off the offensive glass - as Amare does - you're often not perceived as an "offensive rebounder." Yet, that's exactly what Wallace does best.

The GM's call Phoenix the most fun team to watch, with a whopping 60 percent of the vote. Best home court advantage goes to the clanging cowbells and pep-rally atmosphere of Sacramento. Stoudemire and Lebron tied for "most athletic player," while Ray Allen got 58 percent of the vote as "best pure shooter," to which I say: well, duh.

Note on Ray Allen: watch his feet. Ray-Ray never, EVER takes a shot without setting his feet. You could write a shooting textbook and include nothing but photos of his kicks. It's Exhibit A in my sports theory that nothing is more important to an elite athlete than his lower body, but that's another blog.

"Fastest with the ball?" Iverson. Again, duh. Rip Hamilton was voted "best at moving without the ball," while Kobe was considered "best at getting his own shot." Draw your own conclusions there. Jason Kidd topped the charts in both "best passer" and "best in the open court," while our man Amare was once again atop the rankings as "best finisher" (edging out Kobe).

And perhaps my favorite category among the Fourth Annual GM Poll: "Which player does the most with least?" Can we call this the Scott Skiles Award, or is that insulting?

Anyway, Brad Miller of Sacramento wins it with 22 percent of the vote. Ben Wallace (really?), Brian Cardinal, Ryan Bowen, Elton Brand (again, what game were you watching?), and Mark Madsen were among the vote-getters. Seeing as how Wallace, Brand, Manu Ginobili, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, and Paul Pierce (Paul Pierce!) also received votes here, I have to think that some of the GM's didn't quite understand the question.

Great stuff. Let's see how these talent evaluators do after 82 games of the real thing.