Drop It Like It's Hot?

Two notes I saw this week, seemingly unrelated, that may go a long way in predicting this year's mythical national champion:

First, Texas head coach Mack Brown was interviewed at halftime of the Virginia Tech-Maryland game on ESPN on Thursday night. What he said in response to Rece Davis's questions was irrelevant; it was the graphic under Brown's talking head that caught my eye.

Did anyone else realize that under Brown, Texas has won at least nine games in each of the last seven years? Curious, I looked it up: in the last four years prior to 2005, Brown and the Longhorns went 43-8. How many national championships during that span? Zero. Zip, zilch, nada.

By comparison: in the last four years prior to '05, Ohio State was 38-11, with one national title. Miami was 44-5, with one national title. Southern Cal was 42-9, with two national championships. Again, Texas is 43-8 over the last four years - one game better than Southern Cal, and on pace with Miami - and still, no national championships under any measure since 1970. Insert sarcastic comment here about Brown, Texas, and winning big games (see "Red River Shootout, 2000-2004").

Second thing: I listened to a Texas newspaper reporter on national sports radio this week describe the impact that Texas QB Vince Young has had on his Longhorn teammates. The reporter's main argument was that Young brings a sense of relaxation to the 'Horns, leading them in (rap) song before each game and even convincing Brown to download Snoop Dogg into his iPod.

Hey, if Pete Carroll can do "The Trojan" - a spastic locker-room dance that his players find absolutely hilarious - to celebrate every USC win, I suppose Brown can fire up his guys with a few choruses of "Drop It Like It's Hot."

Does anyone see the USC train jumping the tracks sometime between here and a third straight national title? Okay, maybe not - but you have to admit, Texas seems a lot less puckered than normal this year. Mack Brown has been under the gun from the moment he took over in Austin - the five straight losses to Oklahoma not helping much there - but this year just feels different. Call me crazy, but I'm not ready to engrave that trophy just yet.

Meanwhile, Georgia is feeling Auburn's pain. The Bulldogs are one of seven 6-0 teams heading into the weekend, and ranked fourth in the first BCS release, behind USC, Texas, and Virginia Tech. If the three teams above the Bulldogs win out, UGA has little chance of reaching a national championship game, no matter what they do. Shades of Auburn, 2004. Is this an SEC thing, or just a coincidence?

Georgia suffers because its schedule is back-loaded. Their toughest game to date was against Tennessee (a vastly overrated team, it would appear), with Florida and Auburn the only two "big" games remaining. The trouble with the BCS, as every college football fan knows, is that once you're down in the standings, it's almost impossible to catch up.

But then again, check the schedules of the teams ahead of the Bulldogs. USC has quality wins over Arizona State and Notre Dame, with key matchups remaining against Cal and a resurgent UCLA. Texas has finally beaten Oklahoma (not nearly as impressive this year, however), and did beat Ohio State, but all that's left is this weekend's meeting with the paper tigers from Texas Tech and the emotional finale against Texas A&M. Virginia Tech struggled to beat N.C. State in their opener, won their next three games by a total score of 141-7 (really), and now has Boston College, Miami, and a confident Virginia to worry about. My point: there's nothing in any of those schedules to separate one team from the rest, yet the BCS claims it can do it.

Look, piling on the BCS is hardly a bold stand. It's a flawed system, as Auburn knows, and Georgia is about to find out, probably along with Virginia Tech. But until and unless we get a real playoff system - not an "and-one" extra bowl game - somebody is going home unhappy every year. Conventional wisdom, gleaned from impending television contracts, university presidents' stances, and the financial and logistical challenges of playing football for an extra month, suggest that this is the way it's gonna be for the foreseeable future.

In its first few seasons, the BCS got bailed out by upsets. Last year, Auburn (and, to some extent, Utah) was the fly in the ointment. It's going to happen again this year, with Georgia or Alabama, with Virginia Tech, maybe even with Texas Tech. We'd better get used to it.